Research On The Impact Of The Exchange Rate Of "the Third Country" On China’s Export Trade To The One Belt One Road Countries

Research on the impact of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade has always been an important field of international economics,and it is also the basis for formulating relevant exchange rate policies.In the existing literature,most of the research objects on the impact of exchange rates on trade are based on bilateral trade between two countries,and rarely take into account the role of other countries’ exchange rates,that is,the role of “third-party”exchange rates.Therefore,if the existing relevant literature does not consider the role of the "third party" exchange rate,the results are likely to be biased.With the continuous expansion of China’s export trade scale to countries related to the “Belt and Road” and the acceleration of the internationalization of the RMB,it is necessary to study the influence of the “third party” exchange rate on China’s export trade to the “Belt and Road” countries.Based on the theoretical model constructed by Cushman(1986)and following the ideas of Wang Xue et al.(2016),this paper constructs a theoretical mechanism in which the “third party” exchange rate acts on China’s export trade to the “Belt and Road” countries.Monthly data from January to December 2019,using the 2SLS method to conduct an empirical analysis of the China-US exchange rate,China-Europe exchange rate,and China-Japan exchange rate on my country’s export dynamics to 10 countries along the “Belt and Road”initiative to further examine the “third-party” exchange rate The role of changes in my country’s export trade to the “Belt and Road” countries.The theoretical analysis of this article is consistent with the empirical analysis results,indicating that the role of the "third party" exchange rate is indeed embodied in China’s export trade to the "Belt and Road" countries.Among them,the exchange rate changes in China,Japan,and China and Europe have played a significant role in China’s export trade to the “Belt and Road” countries.When considering the United States as a “third party”country,only the level changes in the exchange rate between China and the United States have significantly affected China’s The export trade of countries along the Belt and Road,and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations is not significant.If the bilateral exchange rates between China and the “Belt and Road” countries remain stable,the increase in the exchange rate fluctuations between China and the United States will promote China’s export trade to the “Belt and Road” countries;If the exchange rate fluctuations between China-Europe and China-Japan increase,it will further reduce China’s exports to the "Belt and Road" countries.Therefore,while strengthening trade ties with countries related to the “Belt and Road”initiative,China should pay attention to maintaining the stability of bilateral exchange rates with countries related to the “Belt and Road” initiative,gradually promote the internationalization of the RMB,improve the Chinese export trade structure,and increase the level of trade facilitation between China and countries related to the “Belt and Road”initiative.