Research On Disruption Risk Propagation And Control Strategy Of New Energy Vehicles Supply Chain

Compared with traditional fuel vehicles,new energy vehicle(NEV)have achieved leap-forward innovation in terms of power source and intelligence,and the operation structure of upstream and downstream supply chain is also unique from traditional vehicle supply chain.As an emerging market,a large number of start-up companies have poured into the new energy vehicle industry,and the structure of the new energy vehicle supply chain network(NEV SCN)has become increasingly complex.When a node enterprise or link is interrupted,its destructive impact may involve the entire supply chain network.At the same time,the expansion of supply chains around the world has also led to a continuous increase in the probability of disruption and spread of the entire supply chain network.From the perspective of supply chain network,the study of disruption risk propagation and control strategies in NEV SCN has certain theoretical and practical value for enhancing the robustness and elasticity of China NEV SCN.Therefore,based on the theory of complex network propagation dynamics,this paper studies the problem of disruption risk propagation in the NEV SCN.The main research work includes:constructing the evolution model of the NEV SCN;Disruption risk propagation mechanism;and the targeted disruption risk control strategy is proposed.In terms of network construction,based on the BA scale-free model of complex network,through the analysis of the "growth" and "priority connection" characteristics of the actual supply chain of NEV,the random connection of the BA scale-free network is improved,and the regional selection coefficient is added to control the connection range of nodes newly entering the network,and build a NEV SCN evolution model that is closer to practice.The complex network statistical characteristics such as topology nodes,node degree and degree distribution of the constructed NEV SCN are verified by MATLAB simulation experiments,which are consistent with the real supply chain network,and all have scale-free power-law distribution characteristics.In terms of risk propagation,the epidemic contagion model SIRS in complex network propagation dynamics is used to construct a risk propagation model of the NEV SCN.Based on the literature survey and expert survey method,analyze the disruption risk of the NEV SC and establish an disruption risk evaluation index system,use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the parameter values of the disruption risk propagation model for simulation,and study the change rules of susceptible nodes,infected nodes and immune nodes.By adjusting the parameter values,the effects of infection rate α,immunity rate β,and immunity loss rate μ on the spread of SCN disruption risk are studied.In terms of risk control,the SGMW supply chain network was taken as an example to analyze its topology and risk dissemination to verify the rationality of the SCN model of new energy vehicles.In view of the risk problems in SGMW SCN,the disruption risk control strategies are proposed from network and node perspectives respectively.At the network level,control the risk of early disruption,improve network structure and develop supply chain finance,and improve the development conditions of the industry from the perspective of network.At the node level,enterprises strengthen disruption risk warning,build digital supply chain to strengthen supplier management,and cultivate enterprise flexibility.Based on the cross integration of complex network,SC disruption and risk propagation,this paper studies the supply chain of NEV from a macroscopic network perspective.The disadvantage of this paper is that the construction of the risk propagation model is relatively simplified,and the selection of disruption risk indicators still needs to be refined,which is still far from the reality.