Research On Risk Transmission And Prevention And Control Strategies Of Chinese Banks From The Perspective Of Complex Network Systems

The subprime crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008 affected the world and dealt a heavy blow to economic development worldwide.After this crisis,scholars shifted the focus of financial risk research from individual financial institutions to the study of systemic financial risks and financial risk contagion.Risk contagion has become an important part of the field of financial risk research.Firstly,this article summarizes the research content related to complex networks,infectious disease models,sand pile models,and financial risk contagion,and determines the main content and research methods of the study.It defines key concepts such as bank risk,systematic risk,risk contagion and risk management,and elaborates important theories such as complex network theory,self-organized criticality theory and financial risk cybernetics,laying a theoretical foundation for later research.Secondly,based on a comprehensive consideration of both internal and external aspects of the bank,a bank risk measurement system was established.Quarterly data from 42 listed banks from the Flush database from 2011 to 2021 were selected to measure the historical risk coefficients of the banks,while revealing the changing process of the risk structure within China’s banking system.After analyzing the theoretical basis and the current situation of bank risk,the mechanism of bank risk contagion is analyzed from two aspects: direct and indirect contagion of risk.At the same time,combined with the three characteristics of systemic risk,the mechanism of individual risk evolving into systemic risk is introduced.On this basis,starting from the network characteristics of China’s banking system,the banking network is abstracted as a complex network,and the average degree of the network is calculated through historical payment data between banks.Under this network,a SIRS model and a sand pile model for discontinuous treatment strategies are constructed,and the concept of risk spontaneous rate is innovatively proposed on the basis of the original model.The treatment function is set as a discontinuous function,and the expression of the basic regeneration number is analyzed and calculated.At the same time,a testing method for the fractal structure of the banking system is determined.Once again,based on the previous bank risk measurement data,the model parameters are estimated using methods such as Copula function and threshold regression to analyze the process of bank risk propagation,further explore the rationality of current government risk prevention and control strategies in China,simulate different strategies,and propose corresponding optimization plans.Statistical analysis of the scale and frequency of risks within the banking system,testing the fractal structure of the banking system,and proving the existence of scale invariance in the banking system,as well as the possibility of individual risks evolving into systemic risks.Finally,based on the above analysis,this article proposes relevant suggestions from two aspects: reducing bank risk contagion and optimizing government risk prevention and control strategies,in order to better regulate the risk structure within the banking system,improve the stability of the banking system,and minimize risk losses.