Research On Value Evaluation Of Elderly Apartment Project Based On Fuzzy Compound Real Option

Data from the seventh national census showed that the proportion of people aged 60 and above in China increased by 5.44 percent from 2010 to 18.70 percent,making the aging problem the focus of the whole society."14th Five-Year Plan" clearly put forward "to improve the pension service system",can predict the future pension service market prospects.However,the development of apartment projects for the aged in the current pension service system is not satisfactory,and the huge market space for development has not set off the development boom of apartment projects for the aged.The reason is that the investment,construction and operation of the elderly apartment project is a long,complex and changeable dynamic process.From the perspective of value evaluation,the traditional value evaluation method of the elderly apartment project--the net present value method,assumes that the future operation environment is static and determined.Ignores the valuation object in the process of business uncertainty and investors decision-making dynamic flexibility of compound option value,the value of the elderly apartment project is easy to underestimate,causing investors lack of confidence to the elderly apartment project,causing investors when making investment decisions determine after some deliberation remains unmoved.Therefore,scientific evaluation methods are particularly important for the development of apartment projects for the elderly,which is a key reference indicator for the apartment projects for the elderly to be favored and explored by all kinds of capital in the market,and also has important practical significance for improving the enthusiasm of all kinds of social investors to participate in apartment projects for the elderly.First of all,based on the discussion of the existing problems in the evaluation of the old-age apartment project,this paper points out that the development,construction and operation of the old-age apartment project has the characteristics of compound real options,and puts forward the idea of introducing the analysis method of compound real options into the value evaluation of the old-age apartment project.Secondly,the option characteristics of the senior apartment project are discussed in detail,and the generalized sequence compound option pricing model is selected to study the senior apartment project according to the actual characteristics of the senior apartment project options.Finally,taking a specific project as an example,the process of social investors’ operation of the project is divided into three decision points,and a triple fuzzy compound real option pricing model based on the option characteristics of the old apartment project is established to calculate and analyze the project,and compared with the net present value method,so as to verify the superiority of the real option method in the value evaluation of the old apartment project.The conclusion shows that the project of senior apartment has the characteristics of compound real option,and the value of compound real option can be calculated by fuzzy compound real option method.The fuzzy compound real option method fully shows the management flexibility value neglected under the rigid management decision of senior apartment project,which makes up for the deficiency that the value of senior apartment project is easily underestimated under the traditional net present value method,and is a useful supplement to the current evaluation system of senior apartment project.