Long-term Care Insurance’s Impacts On Human Mortality

With the increasing number of disabled elderly people,the way of care for the elderly in China in the past can no longer adapt to this change,so there is an increasing need to establish and improve policies and systems related to long-term care.In this context,Qingdao promulgated the "Opinions on the Establishment of a Long-term Medical Care Insurance System(Trial)" in July 2012,and since the implementation of the pilot policy,there have been relatively few quantitative studies in the domestic academic community.Most of the research is through questionnaire surveys,or with reference to national research databases,most of the methods use the double difference method to study the impact of long-term care insurance on the physical and mental health of the disabled elderly,and some scholars use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods to construct indicators to evaluate the effect of policies.However,the conclusions of the study have not yet been unified,and some scholars have found that long-term care insurance can improve the health of the disabled elderly,and some scholars have found that long-term care insurance is not ideal in improving the health status of the elderly.The conclusions of foreign studies are relatively uniform,and on the basis of assessing the physical and mental health of disabled elderly people,mortality rate,a measure of health,is also concerned.At present,domestic scholars’ research on the impact of long-term care insurance on mortality is relatively scarce.This paper studies the policy of long-term care insurance in Qingdao,takes2002-2016 as the time range,selects panel data from 32 cities such as Qingdao,Wuxi and Zaozhuang in China,and uses synthetic control method to explore the impact of long-term care insurance in Qingdao on population mortality.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)Long-term care insurance reduces the population mortality rate in Qingdao: The overall decline in the actual population mortality rate in Qingdao compared with the potential population mortality rate when the long-term care insurance policy is not implemented is about 4.6%;(2)The impact of long-term care insurance on population mortality in Qingdao is dynamically changing: after the pilot of long-term care insurance in Qingdao,the population mortality rate has increased briefly,and then decreased rapidly,but the decline has decreased year by year.Main contributions:(1)in terms of research objects,population mortality is used as a variable to measure the effect of long-term care insurance policies in China;(2)in terms of research methods,this paper applies the synthetic control method to the policy effect of long-term care insurance,and discusses and analyzes the impact of policies on population mortality;(3)on the basis of theory,this paper relies on Anderson’s health behavior model to explain the impact of long-term care insurance on population mortality.