Research On Supply Chain Credit Risk Contagion Considering Multiple Financing Channels

For the capital-constrained enterprises in the supply chain,commercial credit and bank credit are two common alternative financing resources.The use of commercial credit or bank credit financing will further make the contagion of credit risks between supply chain enterprises possible.Existing literature also pays attention to the contagion of credit risk in the supply chain.However,most of these studies focus on the analysis of credit risk contagion under a single financing channel,and most of them use the static comparison method under the EOQ framework to explore the optimal decision-making of the supply chain under capital constraints by constructing a mathematical model question.These studies ignore the coexistence of financing from multiple financing channels,and rarely do research on the contagion of supply chain credit risk from the bank’s perspective,and even less focus on the heterogeneity and dynamic interaction process of supply chain enterprises.Therefore,this paper firstly incorporates the dual-channel financing model of commercial credit and bank credit into the financing decision-making of the supply chain enterprises subject to capital constraints by improving the classic newsboy model.and bank credit both promote the contagion of credit risk among supply chain companies.For banks,it is beneficial to consider the supply chain enterprises as a whole when specifying loan strategies,because there is always an optimal interest rate combination of supply chain enterprises,so that under this combination,the bank will face the smallest expected loss.On this basis,in order to describe the heterogeneity of supply chain enterprises and the dynamic characteristics of financing strategies of capital-constrained supply chain enterprises,and to grasp the characteristics of core enterprises and circle enterprises in the supply chain,we further use multi-agent simulation technology to The dynamic interaction and strategy evolution of heterogeneous supply chain enterprises are simulated.In the case of adding the third financing channel,that is,the credit guarantee financing model,the simulation results show that:first,for banks,the bank’s prudent and conservative lending policy will reduce the risk contagion in the supply chain,but it will also reduce the overall supply chain risk.For profit,banks can reduce the degree of contagion of credit risk among enterprises in the supply chain by setting a longer credit period;secondly,for suppliers,the guarantee ratio of suppliers and the lending strategy of commercial credit always tend to converge.And it is a complementary relationship.More aggressive suppliers pursue higher profits,but they also face greater risks;finally,for retailers,more aggressive retailers pursue higher profits and face greater risks.,and also lead to faster risk contagion,but the retailer’s aggressive strategy has a much smaller impact on the risk contagion intensity than the supplier’s aggressive strategy.In general,starting from the choice of multi-financing channel strategies for supply chain enterprises subject to capital constraints,this paper discusses how different decisions of supply chain enterprises and banks affect credit risk contagion among supply chain enterprises.From the main conclusions of this paper,we enrich the existing supply chain research and provide theoretical support for some existing empirical evidence.At the same time,it also builds a basic framework to discuss the financing decision of supply chain enterprises and risk contagion among supply chain enterprises through simulation.It has certain reference significance for guiding the financing decision-making of supply chain enterprises.