Study On Default Contagion And Financing Strategies Of Supply Chain Finance

With the development of "Internet +",supply chain finance has evolved from the "1+N" 1.0 period to the "N+N" 3.0 period.Due to the intricate guarantees relationships and supply relationships,supply chain enterprises form a complex network.This makes the risk of default in supply chain finance spread along with complex network relationships,and even a systemic default debt crisis.Therefore,this paper uses the complex network to research default contagion,analyzes and discusses the financing strategies and control measures of default contagion.This is of great significance in preventing the risk of default in the supply chain finance and improving the level of competition in the supply chain.Through the literature review,social network analysis,case simulation,mathematical modeling and numerical analysis,this paper studies the supply chain financial default contagion and decision-making problems,establishes the default risk measurement model and the default contagion model of the complex network of supply chain finance,conducts the simulation of default contagion,and constructs the supply chain financial financing decision model to analyze the financing strategy.Firstly,aiming at the measurement of default risk in the complex network of supply chain finance,this paper proposes a method to calculate the probability of default based on the network efficiency and node influence index.This method can evaluate the effect of default contagion and further estimate the probability of default.Research shows that the greater the network efficiency between enterprises,the greater the index of node influence,the greater the intensity of default contagion,and the higher the default risk.Secondly,in order to study the characteristics of default contagion of supply chain finance,this paper combines the principles of SI virus propagation dynamics to construct the default infection model,and uses MATLAB and UCINET to simulate and analyze the default contagion of a salt industry's network,and discuss how to control and prevent it.Through the study of this paper,it reveals that the default contagion of supply chain finance presents a certain regularity,which is the core enterprises and upstream enterprises have stronger ability to infect against default.Avoiding important companies from becoming the sources of contagion,strengthening the risk immunity capabilities of key enterprises,optimizing corporate partnerships,and strengthening corporate innovation capabilities can effectively control the default contagion.Finally,aiming at the financing strategy of supply chain finance under the default contagion,this paper establishes the financing decision model,which can solve the financing critical value of bank,manufacturer and retailer about the default contagion,and also the bank's optimal loan-to-value ratio,the manufacturer's maximum repurchase price,and the retailer's optimal order quantity if financing.The above work has been verified through simulation and numerical analysis.It can provide a measure method of default risk for complex supply chain financial systems,provide certain reference opinions for the control of default contagion and financing strategies and be used to resolve default risk management and prevention issues in supply chain finance complex networks.