Research On The Impact Of China’s Manufacturing Export Market Shift On Carbon Emissions Under The Background Of Global Value Chain Reconstruction

Since the reform and opening up,China’s manufacturing industry has undertaken industrial transfer from developed countries and achieved rapid growth through large-scale utilization of foreign capital and export-oriented development.In order to achieve sustainable development,the state proposes a "dual carbon" goal.Under the impact of the new crown epidemic,the prevalence of trade protectionism in developed countries and changes in domestic and foreign situations such as the return of manufacturing industries have forced China’s manufacturing industry to step up efforts to explore overseas emerging markets.In the context of the current global value chain restructuring,will the transfer of the destination market for manufacturing exports from traditional northern markets to emerging markets in the south help to achieve the "dual carbon" goal? This paper intends to conduct systematic theoretical and empirical research on this issue,and propose countermeasures and suggestions for carbon emission reduction in China’s manufacturing industry under the trend of market shift.A systematic literature review shows that the unbalanced distribution of benefits in the international division of labor,the rise of emerging economies and the reindustrialization of developed countries are important reasons for the emergence of export market shifts,while the environmental effects of foreign trade have different views,such as positive,negative and uncertain.This paper first analyzes the impact of the current manufacturing export market shift on carbon emissions from three aspects:scale effect,structure effect and technology effect,and the research hypothesis is put forward: the shift of the center of gravity of the export market will increase carbon emissions through structure and scale effects,and suppress carbon emissions through technology effects.Secondly,based on the analysis of the development of manufacturing export trade and the status quo of carbon emissions,we construct the export market gradient index and export market dispersion index at the provincial and industry levels respectively.The results show that the focus of China’s manufacturing export market is from north to south.Shifting trends and increasingly fragmented export markets.On the basis of theoretical analysis and investigation of the current situation,this paper further uses the data of 29 provinces and cities and 23 sub-sectors in China from 2003 to 2019 to empirically test the theoretical assumptions through the spatial Durbin model,the static panel model and the system GMM model.The results show:First,the shift of the manufacturing export market not only has an adverse impact on the carbon emission reduction of the manufacturing industry in this region,but also increases the carbon emissions of neighboring regions through spillover effects.Industry carbon emissions increase.Second,the mechanism analysis shows that the shift in export markets leads to increased carbon emissions from manufacturing through diseconomies of scale,downgraded export products,and weakened productivity.Third,the analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that the shift of the manufacturing export market in the eastern region has an adverse impact on carbon emissions in the region and neighboring regions,the shift in the export market in the central region has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the region and neighboring regions,and the direct effect and The spillover effect is not significant.Fourth,the analysis of industry heterogeneity shows that the decentralization of the export market of capital-intensive industries is conducive to reducing carbon emissions,while the decentralization of the export market of technology-intensive industries has a negative impact on carbon emission reduction,and the decentralization of the export market of labor-intensive industries has a negative impact on carbon emissions.The impact of carbon emissions is not significant.Based on the mechanism analysis and empirical test conclusions,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.First,pay attention to the increase in carbon emissions in the process of export market transformation,and increase subsidies for the green development of export enterprises;second,take the market transformation as an opportunity to adjust the division of labor within products,and promote the industrial chain and value chain to high-end Third,improve the efficiency of export enterprises with the help of digital technology,and insist on "winning by quality";fourth,promote the flow and allocation of factors between regions,and improve the efficiency of energy utilization in the manufacturing industry.