| As an important land financial reform policy in China,land management right mortgage loan has been implemented all over the country.By allowing agricultural operators to apply for mortgage financing from financial institutions for their agricultural land management rights with clear property rights,the policy provides a new solution to alleviate the current financial bottleneck of difficult and expensive financing in the field of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers".The Rural Revitalization Strategy has further promoted the reform of rural finance in China.While the county economy continues to develop,how to avoid and slow down relevant financial risks,further stimulate the endogenous power of financial institutions and governments,and realize the sustainable and benign operation of county economy and financial capital is the only way for the development of rural finance.In this context,from the perspective of land finance,this study focuses on the analysis of the operation mechanism of rural land management right mortgage,summarizes the current situation and mode of rural land management right mortgage loan in Zaozhuang City,Shandong Province,models according to the data information of its financial institutions,and obtains the main influencing factors of its risk,so as to provide some decision-making reference for promoting the risk prevention strategy of rural land management right mortgage loan in our country.Combined with the research results of domestic and foreign scholars and field research information,this study systematically combs the typical mode and operation mechanism of rural land management right mortgage loan in Zaozhuang City,Shandong Province.Further,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the data information of 3402 borrowers in the area within 18 months.For the purpose of analyzing how to mitigate the risk of rural land management right mortgage loans,the risk influencing factors in the study area are quantified through the improved entropy method and Cox proportional risk regression model.The empirical results are as follows: the weight of the four indicators of loan amount,average working years,planting insurance coverage and order sales ratio ranks the top four,and they are all positive indicators.And the four covariates of loan amount,credit score,planting insurance coverage ratio and order sales ratio have strong correlation with whether the borrower will have default risk.They are shown as protective factors in the model,which are further brought into the survival model for outcome event prediction.After testing,the prediction model constructed in the study is relatively stable,and has the advantages of no sample matching and high robustness.It is suitable for the evaluation and prediction of this kind of loan risk by financial regulators and commercial banks in practical operation.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,combined with the current situation of rural land management right mortgage in China and previous studies,this paper puts forward four risk prevention suggestions: implementing Inclusive Finance,alleviating elite capture,clarifying land property rights,cultivating multi structure governance land ownership market,increasing the tracking power in loan,promoting digital rural construction,deepening the cooperation of "bank securities guarantee" and building a risk sharing mechanism. |
