The Impact Of Stages Of Strikes By Outbreak Of Large-Scale Epidemic On Chinese Economy

Throughout history,sudden large-scale epidemic such as SARS,Ebola,H1N1 flu and COVID-19 have always been enemies to the survival and development of mankind.They have not only threatened the lives and health of the public,but also played an important role in affecting economic fluctuations.Existing studies mainly see the pandemic as a whole event to analyse its economic impact.As a matter of fact,the epidemic will go through different stages,such as the beginning,the outbreak and the end,and different stages of epidemic will generate different effect on economy.This paper firstly defined the concept of sudden large-scale epidemic,and clarified and summarized the impact of stages of epidemic on micro,medium and macro levels of economy,which might change with the changes of different stages of epidemic.After that,empirical analysis was carried out.Taking SARS,H1N1 flu and COVID-19 for example,this paper proposed the ARIMA-GARCH model to analyze the impact of each stage of sudden large-scale epidemic on the macro economy and three typical industries,which are agriculture,manufacturing industry and transportation industry,focusing on the impact of different stages of the epidemic and summarizing the rules of the impact.In terms of the impact on macroeconomic,refering to the practices of some scholars,industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods were selected to represent macroeconomic supply and demand respectively.The results showed that the epidemic was an important factor affecting the macro economy and had a significant short-term impact on the macro economy.In terms of the numbers and degrees of impact,compared to macro supply,the epidemic had more impact on macroeconomic demand.Specifically,COVID-19 had the greatest impact on the macro economy with a negative impact on both macro supply and demand,followed by SARS,and H1N1 flu had the least impact.The stages of the epidemic had effect with lags on the economy.Generally speaking,the epidemic had a negative impact on macro demand in the beginning and outbreak stages,while the impact was positive in the recession stage,and different epidemic had a slightly different impact on the macro economy.At the same time,the supply of the economy recovered faster,while the demand was more affected,and the course of the recovery of demand was more of a long-term trend.In terms of the impact on three typical industries,agriculture as the core of the primary industry,considering representativeness and accessibility of data,agricultural product price index was selected to partly reflect the supply and demand situation of agricultural production.The study found that the impact of the epidemic on primary industries was not widespread,and only the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact.In terms of the impact of stages,the epidemic increaseed the index at the beginning or outbreak stage,indicating that the epidemic might cause some pressure on agricultural supply in the early stage,while agricultural product price index showed a reverse trend in the recession stage of the epidemic,indicating that supply and demand tended to balance.At the same time,the impact of agriculture on the epidemic reacted more quickly than in the past.Manufacturing industry as the core of the secondary industry,PMI index of manufacturing industry and fixed investments in secondary sector were selected to partly reflect the supply and demand situation of the industry.The study found that only the COVID-19 had a significant negative impact on manufacturing industry.Specifically,the negative impact of COVID-19 was significant at the beginning and outbreak stage with lags,because it took a long time for such effect to be transmitted from the micro level to the macro level.Transportation industry as the core of the secondary industry,road freight volume and passenger volume were selected to partly reflect the supply and demand situation of the industry.The results showed that the epidemic had a greater impact on transportation industry.Specifically,passenger volume was more affected by the epidemic than road freight volume,which showed that the epidemic had a greater impact on demand than supply,and the negative impact of COVID-19 was the biggest among the three outbreaks,followed by SARS and H1N1 flu.In terms of the phased impact of the epidemic,different stages of large-scale outbreaks had different impact on the transportation industry.Compared with the past,the transportation industry reacted more quickly to the impact of the epidemic.At the same time,the process of transportation recovery was more attributable to its own long-term trend.In general,taking three typical industries as an example,the epidemic had the greatest impact on the transportation industry in terms of frequency and effectness of the impact of the epidemic.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper put forward the policy suggestions such as improving the effectiveness of governance,taking precise measures on the demand and supply-side innovation.