Study On The Influence Of Exchange Rate Changes On Chinese Aquatic Products Import Trade From RCEP Major Member Countries

With Chinese economic growth entering the new normal development stage,the RMB exchange rate is becoming more and more market-oriented,which is bound to have a certain impact on Chineseimport and export trade.China is the largest consumer of aquatic products in the world,and the import trade of aquatic products plays an important complementary role in Chinese aquatic product consumption market.On November 15 th,2020,RCEP,the largest free trade group in the world,was officially signed.A large part of the member countries in the RCEP agreement are important aquatic products trading partners of China.Therefore,studying the influencing factors of Chinese RCEP aquatic products import trade will have important guiding significance for regional economic cooperation.By studying the relationship between exchange rate changes and aquatic products import trade,this paper clarifies the mechanism of exchange rate changes on aquatic products trade,and provides reference for aquatic products trading enterprises to adjust import strategies and avoid risks,so as to promote the formation of a new pattern of domestic and international double circulation in Chinese aquatic products market.From the perspective of exchange rate,this paper divides exchange rate changes into two dimensions: exchange rate level changes and exchange rate volatility changes,trade under the RCEP framework,so as to promote the healthy and green development of Chinese aquatic products trade.According to theoretical analysis,the change of exchange rate level acts on aquatic products trade through price mechanism,and will be influenced by exchange rate transmission factors in the process of action.The fluctuation of exchange rate volatility mainly affects the decision-making of importers and exporters through the exchange rate risk mechanism,thus affecting the trade volume of aquatic products.Therefore,the exchange rate change will affect the import trade of aquatic products by influencing the relative price of aquatic products and the decision-making of importers and exporters.However,the exchange rate is not the only factor that affects the import trade of aquatic products in China.Factors such as the level of economic development,import and export tariffs,foreign investment,changes in market demand and so on will have a certain impact on the development of aquatic products trade in China.Moreover,from the perspective of countries,there are differences in the influence of exchange rate changes for different aquatic products importing and trading countries.From the results of empirical analysis,the impact of exchange rate change on Chinese aquatic products import trade from Vietnam is not significant,but on Chinese aquatic products import trade from Indonesia,Thailand,New Zealand and Japan is significant.Among them,the influence of exchange rate level change and exchange rate fluctuation is different.In Chinese aquatic products import from Indonesia and Thailand,the change of exchange rate level has a significant impact.Imports from Indonesia have a negative effect on the change of exchange rate level,while imports from Indonesia have a negative effect on the change of exchange rate level Thailand’s imports are the opposite.Exchange rate fluctuation has a significant negative impact on aquatic products imports from Indonesia,indicating that the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will reduce Chinese aquatic products imports from these two countries.When we turn to asymmetric effect analysis,the influence of exchange rate level changes on Chinese aquatic products imported from different countries is not completely consistent,some have long-term asymmetric effects and some have short-term asymmetric effects.Exchange rate fluctuation has long-term asymmetric effect on aquatic products import from New Zealand,but there is no short-term asymmetric effect.In the imports from Indonesia and Thailand,the short-term asymmetric effect of exchange rate level changes is significant.This shows that aquatic products traders should adopt different strategies to treat different trading partners in bilateral trade.According to the above analysis,it can be seen that studying the influence of exchange rate changes on Chinese aquatic products import trade under the RCEP framework is not only conducive to improving Chinese exchange rate system,but also conducive to promoting the development of Chinese regional aquatic products trade.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:(1)According to the different effects of exchange rate changes on aquatic products in different countries,adopt differentiated trade strategies;(2)With the establishment of RCEP Free Trade Zone,open up the market and smooth the international circulation of aquatic products;(3)Adjust and innovate the aquaculture mode,promote the transformation and upgrading of aquaculture,and smooth the domestic circulation of aquatic products;(4)Establish a monitoring system of exchange rate fluctuation with digital technology to deal with the risk of exchange rate fluctuation in a timely manner;(5)Promote the internationalization of RMB and reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.