Research On The Heterogeneity Of The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rate Misalignment On China's Import And Export Industry

Economic globalization will enhance the internationalization of trade and finance.The market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate helps to discover the intrinsic value of RMB and its exchange rate risk through market-oriented means,and China's managed floating exchange rate system is the institutional guarantee for the management of RMB exchange rate risk.The level and misalignment of RMB exchange rate has become important factors affecting China's import and export trade.Since the second quarter of2019,influenced by trade frictions between China and the United States and other factors,the RMB exchange rate has depreciated periodically,during which the RMB exchange rate broke 7 against the US dollar.Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia in 2020,the pressure of RMB depreciation has increased.The level and misalignment of RMB exchange rate will affect China's import and export trade through the exchange rate transmission mechanism.Due to the different price elasticity of commodities,the influence of RMB exchange rate level and exchange rate misalignment on the import and export industry may be different.Therefore,according to the general requirements of "stabilizing finance" and "stabilizing foreign trade",it is of great practical significance to study the heterogeneity of the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on different import and export industries in China,to control the exchange rate risk and to implement the differentiated development strategy of import and export industries.Based on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Theory,Exchange Rate Transmission Theory and Elasticity Analysis Theory,this paper expounds the theoretical logic of the impact of exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment on import and export trade.Based on the actual data,it analyzes the current situation of RMB exchange rate and China's import and export trade.The Behavior Equilibrium Exchange Rate(BEER)Model is used to measure the key variable of RMB exchange rate misalignment.The paper uses the Autoregressive Distribution Lag(ARDL)Model and Error Correction(ECM)Model to empirically study the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on different import and export industries in China,and to explore the practical application logic of the impact of exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment on import and export trade.The research conclusions are sorted out,and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the macro level of government and micro level of enterprises.This paper is divided into seven parts: the first part describes the background and significance of the study,reviewsthe literature on exchange rate misalignment and its impact on import and export,and puts forward the research content and methods of this paper;the second part defines the concept and connotation of exchange rate,introduces Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Theory,Exchange Rate Transmission Theory,Elasticity Analysis Theory and so on;the third part describes the current situation of RMB exchange rate and China's import and export industry;the fourth part selects the medium and long-term fundamental factors and short-term random factors that affect the exchange rate of RMB to build BEER Model,and obtains the equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment in 1994-2018 based on E-G two-step method;the fifth part constructs the ARDL Model and ECM Model,and makes descriptive statistical analysis;the sixth part,based on the Standard International Trade Classification(SITC),empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the next 10 categories of import and export industries,and makes a comparative analysis;the seventh part summarizes the conclusions of this study,and looks forward to the future study of RMB exchange rate and its misalignment,import and export trade.The conclusions are as folows: there is a slight misalignment in the real effective exchange rate of RMB;there is heterogeneity in the direction of the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the import and export industry;there is heterogeneity in the time lag effect of the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the import and export industry;there is heterogeneity in adjust speed of the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment on the import and export industry;on the whole,the impact of exchange rate misalignment on imports is greater than that on exports,and the impact of long-term exchange rate misalignment on imports and exports is greater than that of short-term exchange rate misalignment on imports and exports,and the direction of their impact on imports and exports is not all the same between different industries in different periods.Therefore,it is suggested to build and improve the long-term mechanism and emergency mechanism of RMB exchange rate management,develop diversified exchange rate risk hedging tools,and implement import and export development strategies of differentiated industries and enterprise exchange rate risk management strategies.