Study On The Spillover Effect Of Electric Vehicle Industry Chain

In the process of global independent economic individuals moving toward integration,trade and industries are becoming more and more complicated and diverse,and the spillover effects between industries are greatly enhanced,promoting and constraining each other.As one of the important industries in the national economy,the automobile industry has a strong demonstration role in China and is closely related to other industries,and changes in its stock price will ripple through many related industries.Since traditional fuel cars are extremely dependent on fossil energy and emissions from the transportation sector lead to serious air pollution,electric vehicles powered by less consuming and polluting energy have become the main development direction of China’s auto industry.In the 21 st century,two extreme events broke out-the stock market crash and the covid-19.These two extreme events brought a huge impact to the stock market and also strengthened the spillover effect among industries.The extreme events had a great impact on our stock market as a whole,showing a cross-sectional trend of the same rise and fall.Nowadays,the international situation is severe and extreme events are frequent.In such an environment,studying the spillover effects of the upstream,midstream and downstream industries in China’s electric vehicle industry chain,especially the mean spillover and volatility spillover effects in the event of extreme events,is of great significance to the security of the national industry chain and investors’ portfolio management.This paper first compiles the literature on inter-industry spillover effects and how extreme events play a role in inter-industry spillover effects at home and abroad,and specifies the theory of inter-industry spillover effects.Subsequently,this paper selects data from a total of seven industries(lithium ore,other metals,electrolyte,diaphragm,battery,circuit system,passenger car,respectively)from the upstream,midstream and downstream of China’s electric vehicle industry chain under the perspective of industry chain,divides the time interval into three stages: before extreme events,stock market crash and covid-19,and uses generalized spillover index and DCC-GARCH to explore the inter-industry static,dynamic mean and volatility spillover effects.The results show that,from a static perspective,there are strong spillover effects among industries in the China’s electric vehicle industry chain,and the spillover effects tend to flow from upstream and midstream to downstream,with each industry mainly suffering from spillover effects from itself.Secondly,the lithium ore,battery and circuit system industries have positive spillover effects on other industries,and the lithium ore industry and the battery industry are the main net spillovers in the electric vehicle industry chain;on the other hand,the downstream passenger car industry suffers the strongest spillover effects from other industries and is the main net recipient.From a dynamic perspective,the total spillover effect among industries in China’s electric vehicle industry chain will increase significantly after extreme events,and the identity of the industry net spillover(recipient)will change at certain crisis moments.