Research On Local Government Debt Risk Assessment And Early Warning System

At present,the global epidemic situation is still severe,international commodity prices remain at a high level,the recovery of the world economy is slow,coupled with the blockade of key technologies,which makes China face enormous internal and external impacts,and the downward pressure of the economy is very serious.Therefore,China constantly adjusts and reforms fiscal and monetary policies.In order to expand effective investment,play the leverage role of government investment,and promote the formation of a new development pattern of domestic and international double-cycle mutual promotion,government constantly expanding the scale of local government debt.The continuous support of special funds from government bonds to infrastructure,industrial parks,people’s livelihood security projects,social welfare undertakings,agriculture,forestry,water conservancy,energy and other fields has also effectively stimulated domestic investment and consumption enthusiasm,and has played a vital role in promoting "six guarantees and six stability".However,the standardized management of the whole process of "borrowing,using,managing and repaying" of local government debt lags behind the rapid expansion of the scale of local government debt,which creates hidden dangers for the occurrence of local government debt risks.In order to standardize debt management and effectively respond to the ensuing peak period of debt repayment,it is necessary to supervise the debt risk exposure and prevent the occurrence of debt risks.As the saying goes,"prepare for a rainy day",supervision in advance is also the most efficient and resourcesaving way.Therefore,this thesis evaluates and warns the local government debt risk situation in China to give full play to the role of local government debt risk presupervision.On the basis of fully understanding the research status and related theories of local government debt at home and abroad,this study elaborated on the definition and characteristics of local government debt.At the same time,it analyzes the causes of local government debt risk from the perspectives of fiscal system,economic development and debt management.Then,based on the debt-to-GDP ratio and debt –to-comprehensive financial abilities ratio,the thesis evaluates the debt risk of local governments in China,and finds that both of them have obvious and similar spatial distribution characteristics,basically showing a spatial pattern of low in the east and high in the west,and their size is negatively correlated with local economic strength.In order to scientifically and accurately assess the debt risk situation of local governments,after screening and simplifying the indicators,a debt risk evaluation index system with 20 indicators covering the four levels of economy,finance,debt and residents’ burden was established around the research object.On the basis of ensuring the comprehensive data information and the combination of subjectivity and objectivity,AHP,entropy weight method,principal component analysis method are used to determine the index weight,and grey relational analysis is used for comprehensive evaluation.It is found that 25 provinces including Sichuan,Heilongjiang and Jiangsu,among 31 provinces and cities in China,are assessed as high risk,accounting for80.65%.Guangdong,Zhejiang,Beijing and Jiangsu were assessed as general risks;Shanghai is assessed as risk-free;Guizhou province was assessed as a significant risk.Moreover,the local debt risk level in the eastern region is lower than that in the central and western regions.After training with BP neural network,it is found that the difference between expected and actual output is relatively small,and the overall test effect can reach more than 95%,no matter whether the test set and training set are randomly selected or specified,so the debt risk assessment and early warning system has certain universality.In order to prevent and defuse local government debt risks,we have fully absorbed the lessons of local government debt risks in the United States,Japan and Brazil and learned from their experiences in dealing with crises.Based on the actual situation of our country,we put forward measures to prevent debt risks around system,economy and debt management,such as scientifically designing transfer payment methods,actively responding to the aging of the population,strengthening the regulation of the real estate market,reforming the cadre assessment system,establishing local government debt service reserve system and other measures.