Research On The Impact Of The "Four Trillion Economic Stimulus Plan" On The Total Factor Productivity Of Listed Companie

In September 2008,when the international financial crisis broke out,the Chinese government quickly launched an economic stimulus plan with a total investment of about 4trillion yuan,aimed at "maintaining growth and expanding domestic demand".The policy has achieved rapid economic growth,stabilized employment,and effectively resisted the impact of the financial crisis.However,in the long run,it has left sequelae,such as policy-supported industries and overcapacity,lower profits and lower returns on infrastructure investment.The essence of these sequelae is a decline in total factor productivity(TFP).TFP reflects the utilization of capital,labor and other factor resources,and is the embodiment of the production efficiency of enterprises.Facing the future of "high-quality development",improving TFP will become the main melody of economic development,but there will be a variety of economic stimulus plans in the future,how to avoid the decline of TFP,this thesis on the "four trillion economic stimulus package" research,can provide some key reference for the future economic stimulus.Enterprises’ investment efficiency and financing constraints are closely related to total factor productivity.This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic policies on total factor productivity from the perspective of "four trillion economic stimulus package" affecting micro enterprises’ investment behavior and financing constraints.This paper studies China A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2017,Company data on state-owned enterprise shares(SOE share)and at a micro level of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,Divide provinces with higher than the median into high SOEs,Lower than the median is divided into low state-owned enterprise share;Setting the year 2000-2008 as the year before the stimulus implementation,The year 2009-2017 is the year after the implementation of the stimulus lackage.The dual difference model was used to study whether and how the 2008 economic stimulus plan affects the total factor productivity of Chinese listed companies through the channels of SOE share.It is found that:(1)After the implementation of the economic stimulus plan in 2008,the TFP of all listed companies,whether state-owned,non-state-owned or all listed companies,declined significantly in one year,and then began to differentiate.After a brief rise,State-Owned enterprises began a longer-term decline,while non-state-owned enterprises’ TFP declined until the third year,after which it began to recover,but did not return to 2008 levels until around 2013.(2)After the implementation of the economic stimulus plan in 2008,more credit flowed to provinces with low share of state-owned enterprises compared with low share of state-owned enterprises.The empirical results found that:(1)Compared with the provinces with a lower share of state-owned enterprises,the average total factor productivity of enterprises in the provinces with a higher share of state-owned enterprises decreased significantly after the implementation of the economic stimulus plan.(2)Specifically,in provinces with a high share of state-owned enterprises,enterprises have increased fixed investment such as infrastructure construction,resulting to excessive investment.(3)Among the provinces with a high share of state-owned enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises decline their total factor productivity due to financing constraints.(4)Heterogeneity test found that: among the provinces with a high share of state-owned enterprises,the TFP of state-owned enterprises decreased.(5)Among the provinces with a high share of state-owned enterprises,the total factor productivity of high-tech enterprises increases due to the policy subsidies.The policy suggestions in this thesis are as follows:(1)taking continuous stimulus that is conducive to the stability of the economic system to promote or maintain the TFP level,and trying to avoid too big and inconsistent stimulus plans;(2)continuing to improve the efficiency of resource allocation,including easing the financing constraints of non-state-owned enterprises;(3)optimizing the investment behavior of enterprises,constantly eliminate structural distortions,avoid excessive investment;(4)vigorously supporting newand high-technology industries and raising the level of scientific and technological innovation.