Study On China’s Agricultural Export Trade Growth And Effect Decomposition Under The "Belt And Road" Initiative

With the advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative,China’s agricultural trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road is getting closer.The "Belt and Road" region has a large population and a vast territory,and it is an important destination market for Chinese agricultural exports.However,in recent years,China’s export growth of agricultural products to the countries along the "Belt and Road" has slowed down,and exports to some markets such as Vietnam have been prosperous.At the same time,China’s agricultural exports to the promising market face the dilemma of declining local market share.Therefore,in order to fully stimulate the potential of China’s agricultural exports to the countries along the "Belt and Road",this article adopts the decomposition method of export growth effect,starts with the overall agricultural export and the export of agricultural products in important markets to explore the reasons for the sluggish export of agricultural products in China.Exploring the reasons for the decline in the growth rate of China’s overall agricultural exports to the "Belt and Road" countries can provide a basis for activating the potential expansion of China’s agricultural exports.Vietnam’s outstanding trade performance among the countries along the route,analyzing Vietnam as an important market,and discussing the driving force of China’s export expansion of Vietnam’s agricultural products can inspire the development of other markets along the route.In the same period,the reduction of China’s market share of agricultural products exported to Vietnam and the study of the factors behind it can provide a mirror for solving the existing problems of China’s agricultural products export trade,improving the trade status of agricultural products and further promoting China’s agricultural products export to the countries along the Belt and Road.This article first describes China’s overall agricultural export status to countries along the "Belt and Road",the data show that China’s agricultural exports to the countries along the "Belt and Road" have been increasing,but the growth rate has been declining,and the export structure and market distribution of agricultural products are highly concentrated;according to the phenomenon of weak growth ofChina’s agricultural exports,use the multi-market constant market share(CMS)model to analyze the reasons for the changes,and to find out the future China’s agricultural exports to the countries along the line based on trade potential estimates point.Then the multi-market constant market share(CMS)model is used to decompose the effect of the growth of agricultural exports.The research results of the multi-market CMS model show that structural effects,competition effects,and second-order effects work together on changes in export value.Weak agricultural product consumer demand in countries along the "Belt and Road" is an important factor leading to weak growth in China’s agricultural export value;export trade potential calculations suggest that China still has great potential for exporting agricultural products to countries along the "Belt and Road",and the export market distribution needs to be adjusted.Secondly,using the revised and expanded CMS model to deeply analyze thereasons behind the rise in export value and share decline,hopes to take Vietnam as a mirror to further stimulate the export potential of China’s agricultural products under the belt and road initiative.Focuses on China’s agricultural export to Vietnam,we have found that the export structure that China’s agricultural exports to Vietnam does not match the consumption structure of Vietnam,and the competitiveness of agricultural exports needs to be improved.The results of the amended and extended CMS model study show that the continued growth of China’s agricultural exports masks the fact that China’s agricultural exports have become less competitive,Vietnam’s expanding consumer demand is a decisive factor in promoting the growth of China’s agricultural exports,while competitiveness and the structure of export products have adversely affected the growth of China’s agricultural exports and become the main reason of restricting the increase of China’s market share of agricultural products import in Vietnam.Finally,in order to find the future export growth points of Chinese agricultural products,fully tap the export potential of agricultural products of the countries along the route,and realize the continuous growth of agricultural product exports,the export trade potentials of the countries along the route were calculated.There is great potential to be explored,and the distribution of export markets needs to be adjusted.