| Food security is an important basis for national security.At present,the main food import risk is soybean import risk.In recent years,influenced by multiple factors such as growing domestic soybean consumption demand and insufficient production supply,China’s soybean import has increased rapidly,becoming the world’s largest soybean importer,and soybean import risks are increasingly exposed.The dependence on soybean import continues to rise,the import source market is highly concentrated,and the import source channel is relatively single,there is import dependence risk on the key node of the international market and transportation route,becoming the most prominent part of the soybean import risk.In fact,on the one hand,China’s soybean import has a high dependence on the international market;on the other hand,the international soybean export market also has a high dependence on the international soybean demand market.The proportion of China’s soybean imports in the world market continues to rise.As the largest soybean consumer,China plays an important role in the international market.At the same time,the pattern of China’s soybean import market shows that the United States,Brazil and Argentina are competing with each other.Therefore,it is necessary to comprehensively and systematically analyze the risk level of China’s soybean import dependence from the perspective of the interdependence of market supply and demand subjects,and then put forward effective measures to avoid the risk of soybean import dependence.In this paper,based on the interdependence theory,China’s dependence on the international soybean market and the dependence of major soybean exporting countries on China’s soybean import demand market are incorporated into the calculation system by using the soybean trade data from 1996 to 2021,and the risk of China’s soybean import dependence is investigated.On this basis,in order to prevent and resolve the dependency risk of soybean import,this paper builds a model to test the generation mechanism of the dependency risk of soybean import based on the theory of national competitive advantage.In addition,considering the significant differences in the dependency levels of China on different soybean import source countries,this paper further examines the factors affecting the import dependency risk of China’s soybean and the relationship between different import source countries.Finally,in order to avoid the risk of soybean import and ensure the safety of soybean import,this paper explores the specific scheme to optimize the layout of soybean import market.After determining the geographic area of the diversification distribution of the soybean import market,this paper uses the nonlinear programming method to estimate the optimal imports of soybeans from each source country in 2018 and 2020 by minimizing the soybean import risk,and analyzes the specific plan of the diversification distribution of the soybean import market.The calculation results of China’s soybean import dependence risk show that China’s soybean import dependence risk mainly comes from the United States and Brazil,and China’s dependence level on the soybean market of the United States and Brazil is higher than that of the United States and Brazil on China’s soybean import demand market.In contrast,China imports soybeans from Argentina and Canada without import dependence risk.The empirical results of the mechanism of China’s soybean import dependence risk show that the scale of domestic soybean demand,soybean harvest area of major exporting countries,market monopoly degree of import country and domestic economic level have significant positive effects on China’s soybean import dependence risk.Export cost and Sino-US trade friction have a significant negative impact on China’s soybean import dependence risk.The results show that the source countries of soybean import have a certain substitution relationship in China’s soybean import market.Finally,the results of market layout optimization show that China should properly control the quantity of imported soybeans from the United States and Brazil,and take Argentina,Canada,Uruguay,Russia,Ukraine,India,Paraguay,the European Union and South Africa as the main regions for China to diversify its soybean import market,and appropriately increase the quantity of imported soybeans from these countries.To diversify the risk of soybean import dependence. |
