A Study On The Default Factors Of Credit Loans For Small And Micro Enterprises In X Rural Commercial Bank

Small and micro enterprises have become the backbone of China’s economic development,playing a driving role in maintaining social stability and increasing employment.However,the difficulty of financing for small and micro enterprises is a globally recognized challenge.Due to the widespread lack of collateral,short operating cycles,and weak risk resistance,the default rate of small and micro enterprise loans issued by commercial banks is generally high.On one hand,small and micro enterprises are unable to lend,while on the other hand,commercial banks are afraid to lend.How to find the main factors causing small and micro enterprises to default and solve the problem of financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises is an urgent problem that needs to be solved.This article takes the small and micro enterprise credit loan issued by X Rural Commercial Bank in Guiyang City,Guizhou Province as the research object,and explores the influencing factors of small and micro enterprise default.Firstly,it introduces the development history,credit product business logic,and loan processing process of X Rural Commercial Bank.Secondly,the risk factors of X Rural Commercial Bank’s small and micro enterprise credit loans were analyzed.It is found that X Rural Commercial Bank has the following risks:serious customer sinking,low customer default cost,intermediary fraud,high concentration ratio of loans and weak post loan management.Finally,logistic regression and OLS linear regression were performed on the data of 1705 credit loans issued by X Rural Commercial Bank from January to December 2021.The research results indicate that the assessed value and collateral area have no significant impact on whether or not overdue and the number of overdue days;The age of the borrower,loan amount,and repayment method have a significant impact on whether the loan for small and micro enterprises is overdue.The younger the age,the higher the probability of default;Customers who choose the repayment method of "equal principal and interest"have the highest default rate,and the larger the loan amount,the higher the default rate.Customers with a risk level of"high risk"have longer overdue days than customers with a risk level of "low risk",and customers with a property type of "mortgage house" have longer overdue days than customers with a full payment house.Based on the above research conclusions,this article provides reasonable suggestions for customer screening,product design,and process optimization of X Rural Commercial Bank in the future:when granting credit to small and micro enterprise owners,the investigation level should be raised for customers who are younger and have a high demand for loan amounts;For customers whose repayment method is "equal principal and interest",the focus should be on verifying their income and liabilities;For customers with high risk levels and holding mortgage properties,it is necessary to increase post loan management efforts and take post loan measures as soon as possible.