| Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020,the downward pressure on China’s macro economy has increased,the financing environment has been further tightened,and the profitability and liquidity of enterprises have decreased.In 2020,the default scale of China’s bond market has reached a new high,and the default risk in the bond market has gradually increased.Among the industries of bond default,the bond default risk of the real estate industry is relatively prominent.Its prominent bond default risk is not only due to the nature of the industry,but also due to the lack of management ability and risk awareness of some enterprises in the industry.With the change of default risk in the bond market under the new situation,it is of profound practical significance to analyze the risk factors of corporate bond default in depth according to the existing default cases and to study the effectiveness of the existing bond default risk measurement model.This paper chooses China Fortune Land Development Co.,LTD as the case study object.As a famous private real estate enterprise in Hebei Province,China Fortune Land was once ranked among the top ten real estate enterprises in China.Besides,even with the strategic shareholder with strong financial strength such as Ping An of China,it still has serious debt default problem,which has attracted wide attention.This paper mainly analyzes the risk factors of bond default of China Fortune Land Development CO.,LTD and the bond default warning based on KMV model,and puts forward targeted suggestions.The case study found that the main internal factors leading to the bond default of China Fortune Land Development CO.,LTD include:single business model and aggressive expansion,excessive reliance on the sales of supporting residential buildings in the park for corporate income,excessive concentration of investment and operation areas,insufficient operation capacity,unreasonable debt maturity structure,unreasonable financial structure,and excessive reliance on debt.In addition,the impact of the epidemic,the economic cycle and the tightening of financing policies in the real estate industry have also had a great impact on China Fortune Land Development CO.,LTD.Then,this paper uses KMV model to conduct risk early warning analysis of China Fortune Land Development CO.,LTD’s financial risk,and compares the calculated results of the model with external institutions’ credit rating and Z-value.Finally,based on the case study of the bond default of China Fortune Land Development CO.,LTD,this paper summarizes the targeted suggestions to prevent the risk of corporate bond default,including:diversification of corporate strategy,careful layout;Enterprises should pay attention to their own financial structure,establish early warning mechanism;Enterprises should optimize their debt structure;Bond investors need to improve risk awareness and risk identification ability;Regulators should also pay attention to market risk control and establish a reliable and timely credit rating mechanism. |
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