| Housing is a major issue concerning people’s livelihood.Ensuring and improving people’s livelihood bears on people’s well-being and social harmony and stability.Since ancient times,it has been the aspiration of the people to have their own houses.The housing issue is not only a matter of people’s livelihood but also a matter of social development.It bears on economic development,social harmony and stability and housing for the people.More than 20 years since the housing system reform,there is no lack of scholars to this issue in-depth research and discussion;However,there are few studies that apply remote sensing and mapping technology in depth to housing problems.In the past two decades,the real estate market has experienced a development cycle of initial development,rapid development,policy adjustment,and then stabilization.Now,with the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic,the real estate market has entered a new round of bottlenecks.Based on highresolution stereo remote sensing data,the study on the estimation and development potential of the total housing volume in Ningbo City is of great significance for accurately estimating the total housing volume in Ningbo City,effectively solving the problem of real estate development,and stabilizing the economic operation of the real estate and land market.Combined with remote sensing and surveying technology,this paper constructs a method system based on high-resolution stereo remote sensing to calculate regional housing total and per capita housing living area.On the basis of estimating the regional housing total and per capita housing area,this paper constructs a multiple regression model of real estate development based on the driving factors of housing purchase,analyzes the development potential of Ningbo real estate market through the changes in the proportion of driving factors and predicted sales volume,and predicts the real estate sales volume in the next few years.The conclusions are as follows:(1)By calculating the urban areas of ningbo regional per capita living area,combining with the geographical conditions,analysis of regional housing situation,ningbo district to real estate development path: not as a core of haishu,jiangbei,yinzhou,densely populated,housing resources are fully and high prices,can develop higher-end housing provided to improve housing crowd;Fenghua District has low per capita living area and low housing price,so it is possible to develop cost-effective housing for the people in need.At the same time,appropriate indemnification housing is also needed to relieve the housing pressure.Beilun District and Zhenhai District,as coastal areas,have limited housing resource allocation,but the long coastline of Beilun District is suitable for the construction of vacation areas and seascape houses.(2)By comparing the changes of rigid demand and improvement housing sales volume and proportion of the driving factor model,it is found that Ningbo attracts a large number of migrants,which makes the rigid demand proportion of real estate sales increase in recent years.Strong demand to enhance the vitality of the real estate market,so that the short-term potential of the housing market is full.Although the proportion of economic drive is declining under the influence of the rapid growth of housing prices,the improvement housing also maintains a large sales volume due to the strong overall economy of Ningbo.In the long run,Ningbo’s real estate market still has great room for development.(3)From the next five years of commercial housing sales forecast results that Ningbo urban real estate market in the short term demand is still sufficient.The market still has potential to be tapped in the next five years.In the forecast data,the rigid demand caused by population inflow accounts for a high proportion.Under the condition that regional economic development continues to attract population inflow,a large amount of rigid demand can create great potential for the real estate market. |
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