Simulation Research On Agricultural Products Logistics Development Policy Based On SD

In recent years,China’s logistics industry has been greatly developed,but compared with urban logistics,rural logistics has a great room for improvement.Especially,the development of agricultural product logistics is the key to restrict the development of rural economy.Developing rural logistics and perfecting the channel of agricultural products out of villages are the important direction of the development of contemporary rural areas.At present,the logistics industry has developed rapidly in China,and its development speed has become an important indicator to measure local economy.At present,most of the researches focus on urban logistics and regional logistics,and there are relatively few literatures on quantitative analysis of rural logistics and agricultural product logistics,most of which are qualitative analysis of rural logistics development problems and ways,Lack of data support.In order to find out the weak points of rural logistics and promote the further development of rural and agricultural products logistics,this paper analyzes the rural logistics and economic development system by using the system dynamics method and Liaoning Province as an example,and explores the effective way to promote the development of rural logistics.Firstly,the paper defines the system boundary,and analyzes the relationship between rural economy,agricultural product production and marketing and rural logistics subsystem;Based on this,the causal feedback model is established,and the relationship between variables in the system is analyzed according to the causal feedback loop in the model,and the restrictive causal chain of the problems within the system is revealed.Based on causal feedback model,the dynamic model of rural logistics development system is constructed by Vensim simulation software.The model contains many parameters,which tries to reflect the operation mechanism and response law of the actual system.The parameters in the model are assigned by taking Liaoning rural area as a case study,and the logic relationship and control process of the internal variables are determined by using data analysis software.Finally,the model is used to simulate the rural logistics development policy from many perspectives,so as to put forward policy suggestions for the efficient development of rural logistics.The following conclusions are drawn: firstly,increasing the investment in rural road construction in the short term can promote rural economy more efficiently,but in the long run,the return on investment of road construction decreases year by year;Secondly,the government increased the intensity of high-level logistics talents introduction in the early stage of construction,and gradually inclined the focus on rural logistics education in the third year,which can make the rural logistics talents construction more efficient and contribute to the economy.Finally,the government can subsidize the cold chain vehicles of agricultural products properly,but it is not a long-term friendly policy.The purchase subsidy of agricultural Cold Chain vehicles has a certain promotion effect on rural GDP,but it is not the main factor that affects the development of cold chain vehicle market in the long run.