Regional Economic Forecast Analysis And Development Status Research Of Shandong Province

With the rapid economic development of Shandong Province,Shandong Province ranks third in the GDP ranking of all provinces in the country,the output value of various industries has increased significantly,and the output value of various industries ranks first in the country.Shandong Province sits on vast land resources and mineral resources,coupled with the vigorous development of artificial intelligence and other high-tech and a large number of talent introduction plans in recent years,Shandong Province’s agriculture and industry have risen to a higher level on the basis of the huge proportion of output value,and the emerging Internet industry and service industry have also achieved full development.In this regard,the economy of Shandong Province is an important support for the national economy.Therefore,this paper is of great relevance to the study of economic development in Shandong Province.In order to achieve steady and high-quality development of Shandong province’s economy,this paper uses a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning to forecast the regional economy of Shandong province and analyse the development status of each prefecture-level city in the province,based on the summary of previous research results.In the regional economic forecasting analysis,economic indicators are selected for each level of the economy and society to build an economic indicator system,and data from 2000 to 2020 are obtained for supervised learning.First of all,this paper uses random forest to screen the important variables in the indicator system,and the screened important variables have important influence on the economic development of Shandong Province,and then the model is constructed on this basis,including ARIMA model construction,support vector regression model construction,neural network model construction,bagging method model construction,comparing the mean squared error of the major model test sets to determine the support vector regression model under the linear kernel as the optimal model,and use it to complete the prediction.The prediction results show that The GDP of Shandong Province in 2023 will be 10.748448 billion yuan,the GDP in 2024 will be 11.731427 billion yuan,and the GDP in 2025 will be 1.2813182 billion yuan.In the research on the development status of cities in Shandong Province,unsupervised learning is mainly carried out,and the economic index system under unsupervised learning is constructed,first the principal component analysis is carried out,and then the cluster analysis is carried out based on the first three principal components to optimize the cluster analysis results,and finally the ranking table and classification table of the development status of each prefecture-level city are obtained according to the principal component analysis results and cluster analysis results.In the classification table,the 16 prefecture-level cities are divided into 7 categories,which fully shows that the development status of each prefecture-level city is different,so the implementation of targeted development policies is of great significance.The first category is Qingdao City and Jinan City,the second category is Yantai City and Weifang City,the third category is Linyi City and Jining City,the fourth category is Dezhou City,Heze City,Weihai City and Tai’an City,the fifth category is Zibo City and Rizhao City,the sixth category is Liaocheng City and Zaozhuang City,and the seventh category is Binzhou City and Dongying City.After completing the predictive analysis research and the development status research,the research conclusions and development suggestions are drawn according to the research results combined with the characteristics of supervised learning and unsupervised learning.The analysis of the study’s conclusions shows that the future economic development of Shandong Province should focus more on fixed asset investment on the basis of expanding foreign investment and ensuring international circulation,so as to expand domestic demand,enhance the vitality of the provincial market,stimulate the potential of the provincial market and promote a large domestic circulation.Forecast the annual GDP of Shandong Province,the forecast results are consistent with the actual situation,have rationality,and the economic development of Shandong Province is stable and progressive,in line with the requirements of high-quality development goals;In unsupervised learning,each prefecture-level city can formulate development goals according to the classification situation and its own comprehensive score,improve its own advantages,and make up for its own shortcomings,cities within the category can formulate collaborative development strategies,and cities outside the category can learn from each other,help each other,and promote development together.In this study,supervised learning predicts future economic development and unsupervised learning evaluates the level of urban development,and the two complement each other and rely on each other to jointly draw research conclusions and development recommendations.According to the research conclusions and development suggestions,Shandong Province formulated reasonable development goals,refined the development direction of each prefecture-level city,put forward development suggestions for each prefecture-level city,increased support for low-level cities,differentiated the development policies of various prefecture-level cities,made the economic development of each prefecture-level city more targeted,made the overall economic development of Shandong Province more scientific and efficient,and further promoted high-quality economic development.