Study On The Supply Chain Stability Of Fresh Agricultural Products Under The Mode Of "Agricultural Supermarket Docking"

The stability of fresh agricultural products supply chain is not only related to the sustainable operation of fresh agricultural products supply and marketing,but also related to the sustainable development of the industrial chain.In recent years,with the development of science and technology and society,China has successfully solved the problem of food and clothing for hundreds of millions of people,and people’s consumption demand has also changed from food and clothing demand to diversification,branding and greening.According to the survey,the output and consumption of fresh agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables,meat and aquatic products in China rank first in the world.There are three common circulation channels of fresh agricultural products: traditional farmer’s market,supermarket and e-commerce.The farmer’s market involves many subjects,and the chain length is difficult to manage.The e-commerce sales channel only accounts for about 5%.Therefore,the agricultural supermarket docking model is the most suitable for China’s current economic and social development trend and will become the main channel for the supply of fresh agricultural products in the future.However,when people think that "agricultural supermarket docking" is an effective way to ensure the stable supply of agricultural products and solve the poor circulation of agricultural products,many domestic fresh supermarkets have ebbed.Due to the natural properties of fresh agricultural products,such as long production cycle,perishable and seasonality,the agricultural chain is easily disturbed by diseases and natural disasters,and the supply chain of agricultural products has been optimized only for the cost and efficiency.The development of lean and agile makes the supply chain more unstable.Especially in the context of the epidemic situation in COVID-19 and the "anti-globalization" of the supply chain,the supply chain structure is easily impacted,which leads to the risk of "broken chain".The prices of agricultural products in China fluctuate,and unsalable events occur frequently.The phenomenon of "selling hard" by farmers and "buying expensive" by consumers coexist for a long time.It can be seen that ensuring the stable operation of fresh agricultural products supply chain will help to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and reduce the risk of chain breakage of agricultural products supply chain,thus improving the competitiveness of fresh agricultural products supply chain and promoting the high-quality development of agriculture.Based on this,this paper studies the stability of fresh agricultural products supply chain inventory operation under the mode of "agricultural supermarket docking" by using the methods of literature research and qualitative and quantitative combination.The main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:On the one hand,this paper makes system dynamics modeling and stability qualitative analysis of fresh agricultural products supply chain under the mode of "agricultural supermarket docking".Using system dynamics theory and VENSIM software as an analysis tool,the SD model of agricultural product supply chain is established,and the related causal feedback diagram and stock flow diagram are drawn,and a certain mathematical function formula and logical relationship between variables are established.The model has passed the test of dimensional consistency and realistic reliability of the model,and the basis for judging the stability of fresh agricultural product supply chain is given.Qualitative analysis of the supply chain system of fresh agricultural products shows that the negative feedback loop with delay will produce unstable fluctuation behavior,and the interference factors can only affect the stability of the system by changing the structure of the model itself or through the feedback structure,which is consistent with the viewpoint of cybernetics.It is found that in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products under the mode of "agricultural supermarket docking",the delay links are mainly production delay and transportation delay,and the interference factors are mainly inventory adjustment parameters,corruption coefficient and preservation efforts.Among them,the inventory adjustment parameters affect the stability of the inventory operation system by affecting the inventory decision,the preservation efforts mainly affect the stability of the inventory operation system by affecting the order rate of fresh agricultural products,and the corruption coefficient mainly affects the stability of the inventory operation system by causing the circulation loss of fresh agricultural products.On the other hand,this paper simulates and analyzes the stability of fresh agricultural products supply chain under the mode of "agricultural supermarket docking".Taking Chongqing Yonghui Fresh Supermarket as a real case background,the initial value of the model is assigned,and the stability of the system is described by the fluctuation of inventory,and the operation stability of the inventory system under two typical delay models,namely,first-order delay and pure time delay,is analyzed respectively.The research shows that when the inventory adjustment coefficient of growers,agricultural distribution centers and supermarkets is between[0,1] and any constant is taken,the growers subsystem,supermarket subsystem,agricultural distribution center subsystem and the whole fresh agricultural products supply chain system are stable.However,under the pure time delay,when the inventory adjustment coefficient of growers,agricultural distribution centers and supermarkets is between [0,1],the growers subsystem is unstable,the supermarkets and agricultural distribution centers subsystem is stable,and the supply chain system of fresh agricultural products is unstable.Through sensitivity analysis,it is found that the main adjustment parameters are inventory adjustment coefficient,corruption coefficient and preservation effort.Adjusting the above parameters will affect the type and fluctuation range of the response curve of upstream node inventory,thus affecting the stability of the system.