Research On The Spatial Spillover Effect Of Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy

The healthy and balanced development of the real estate market has become one of the social issues that Chinese residents focus on,and also a livelihood issue that government departments focus on solving.After the completion of market-oriented reform in China,the real estate industry has also entered a period of rapid development,with indicators such as housing price to income ratio consistently exceeding residents’ affordability.And this imbalance in development exacerbates the instability of the real estate market development,which has obvious regional characteristics in the development of China’s real estate market.Given the significant importance of real estate for people’s lives and economic development,the Chinese government has continuously issued relevant regulatory policies in recent years.Among them,the purchase restriction policy has been implemented for a long time in China,and the policy issuance text is relatively clear.The regulatory ideas of government departments can be expressed more directly,which has a significant impact on the fluctuations of the real estate market in China.In response to the above facts,this article uses theoretical and empirical research methods to systematically evaluate the actual impact of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices in China.In the process of reviewing relevant research,it was found that there is relatively little research on the spatial spillover effects of purchase restriction policies on housing prices.Therefore,this article focuses on analyzing the impact effects of purchase restriction policies from a spatial perspective.This article selects annual data from various provinces from 2010 to 2021,constructs intensity indicators of purchase restriction policies,and conducts spatial correlation tests on core variables.Finally,the dynamic spatial Durbin model is adopted as the empirical analysis model for this article.Through the analysis and decomposition of the regression results,it was ultimately found that the impact of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices in China can be divided into two levels: firstly,the implementation of the purchase restriction policy has a significant inhibitory effect on local housing prices.The introduction of the purchase restriction policy is conducive to controlling the rapid rise of housing prices,and this impact has a time lag effect.Secondly,there is a spatial spillover effect of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices.The stronger the purchase restriction policy in the local area,the higher the housing prices in surrounding areas and areas with similar economic levels.With the introduction of the purchase restriction policy in different provinces,speculative demand in the real estate market is gradually spreading to other regions.Since the main purpose of the purchase restriction policy is to curb the speculative demand for buying houses,in order to further explore the reflection of the purchase restriction spillover effect in the real estate market and test whether the purchase restriction will cause the transfer of speculative behavior,this paper selects the housing price rent ratio as an indicator to measure the foam of the real estate market,selects the monthly data at the city level,and uses the double difference model for empirical analysis.The research results show that the purchase restriction policy will lead to the foam of the real estate market to non purchase restriction,Especially those that are closer to cities with restricted purchases,which are larger non restricted purchase cities.From this,it can be seen that the evaluation of purchase restriction policies considering spatial effects can provide policymakers with a more comprehensive perspective,which is conducive to a more balanced development of China’s real estate market.Finally,in view of the problems exposed in the research,this paper puts forward three targeted suggestions from three aspects: establishing a scientific monitoring system for the real estate market,formulating housing price regulation policies according to local conditions,and broadening residents’ investment channels,which provides a research basis and future policy optimization direction for decision-making departments to better implement China’s positioning of "housing instead of speculation".