| In the past two decades,China’s real estate,manufacturing and high-tech industries have experienced considerable development and growth.Among them,it is noteworthy that China’s real estate industry involves multiple upstream and downstream industries,the development and investment activities of the real estate industry have a huge impact on China’s economic growth.Therefore,the impact of real estate development investment activities on the development and scale of China’s manufacturing and high-tech industries has attracted increasing attention from the academic community.Different from the previous research,this study further focuses on the impact and role of China’s real estate development investment growth on manufacturing agglomeration and high-tech industry agglomeration,and carefully examines the main ways and mechanisms of its impact.In the current period when China’s economic development is in urgent need of recovery,it is of great significance to study how to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and the related development and investment activities,so as to promote the scale agglomeration and healthy and stable development of China’s manufacturing and high-tech industries,and then promote the implementation of the national innovation-driven development strategy.In view of this,in order to discuss the above key research questions,this thesis analyzes the impact of real estate development investment growth on manufacturing and high-tech industry agglomeration from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Firstly,the impact of real estate investment activities on concentrated investment in manufacturing and high-tech industry development is sorted out from the theoretical level,and two effects that may have an important impact on industrial agglomeration,namely crowding out effect and driving effect,are also analyzed and investigated.Secondly,the study not only compares and analyzes the current development of China’s real estate industry,manufacturing and high-tech industries,but also finds that China’s real estate development investment has been growing continuously in the past 20 years,and there are significant regional differences.Compared with the proportion of manufacturing industry in domestic GDP,which is basically maintained at about 30%,the proportion of added value of China’s high-tech industry to GDP has shown a gradual upward trend.Finally,using the panel data of 256 cities from 2003 to 2018,this thesis analyzes the impact of real estate investment growth on the agglomeration of manufacturing industry and high-tech industry by constructing fixed-effect panel models and spatial econometric models,and examines the robustness of the regression results by changing the calculation methods of key research variables and increasing or decreasing control variables.Furthermore,the impact of real estate investment growth on the two industrial agglomerations was further compared and analyzed through the eastern,central and western regions,first-tier and non-first-tier cities,thereby expanding the findings and significance of the study.The results of the study show:(1)Although China’s real estate development investment activities have an important impact on the development of manufacturing and high-tech industries,the excessive increase of real estate investment may significantly reduce the industrial agglomeration of manufacturing and high-tech industries.This crowding out effect is mainly because the more real estate investment,the capital that can be used for the concentrated investment and development of manufacturing or high-tech industries may be crowded out.(2)Through the analysis of the impact mechanism,it is found that credit expansion is the main channel for real estate investment growth to crowd out the development of manufacturing agglomeration,and the development degree of manufacturing industry is the main channel for real estate investment growth to affect high-tech industry agglomeration.(3)Through spatial econometric analysis,this study finds that there is a spatial correlation between the impacts of real estate investment growth on manufacturing agglomeration and high-tech industry agglomeration,suggesting that such impacts have a certain degree of spillover effect. |
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