The Impact Of The New Rural Insurance System On Farmers’ Land Transfer Behavior

The data of China’s seventh population census shows that there are 264.02 million people aged 60 and above in China,accounting for 18.70% of the total population.Compared with 2010,the proportion of people aged 60 and above has increased by 5.44 percentage points.The degree of population aging is further deepened.Under this trend,the new rural social endowment insurance(referred to as "new rural insurance"),as an inclusive pension project,is more important.Many scholars have studied the impact of the new rural social security system on land circulation before,but the research years are early.In addition,China’s social transformation is fast in recent years,and its research results are less referential,which cannot verify whether the security of China’s rural social security system is adequate at this stage.The research on the impact of the new rural insurance system on land transfer in the existing literature has been relatively comprehensive,and the substitution effect of the new rural insurance system on land security has also been verified from multiple perspectives.However,the current research still has some deficiencies: the data used are mostly cross-sectional data or regional data.Scholars studying the impact of the new rural insurance system on land circulation use only a small number of national micro data.Most of them use small-scale data from a certain region,which cannot exclude the impact of regional factors.However,the results of policy effect analysis may be biased.In addition,most of the existing literature uses cross-sectional data for analysis,which cannot remove some unobservable factors at the household level.Second,important variables are too single.The existing literature mostly takes the evaluation of the policy effect of the new rural insurance on the land circulation market as the research object,and the evaluation criteria are mostly the binary variable of whether the land circulation occurs.Most of the analysis tools are whether to participate in the new rural insurance,and most of the articles do not consider the system design of the new rural insurance to distinguish whether there is an elderly person over 60 years old in the household.Neglecting the dual perspective of the quality and quantity of the land transfer market,can not measure the social security level of farmers after participating in the new rural insurance,and can not explore the effect of the new rural insurance on land transfer.On the basis of theoretical analysis of the mechanism,based on the three balanced short panel data of CFPS in 2014,2016 and 2018,this paper uses the twoway fixed effect model for empirical analysis,tests the differences under different mobility constraints faced by farmers,and systematically studies the impact and mechanism of the new rural insurance on farmers’ land transfer out decisions.In order to explore the impact of the new rural insurance on land transfer in a more threedimensional way,this part further uses CHARLS’ 2013,2015 and 2018 three phase balanced short panel data,through the panel Tobit model,two-way fixed effect model,etc.,to measure the level of social pension security by the amount of farmers’ contributions and benefits,and to study the impact of the new rural insurance on the area of farmers’ individual land transfer.The empirical research finds that: first,if a farmer family has members who are in the stage of participating in the new rural insurance and paying fees,the chances of the family making the land transfer out decision are reduced,and the more family members in this stage,the more restrained the land transfer out;However,if a farmer household has members who are in the stage of receiving the new rural insurance,the probability of the family transferring out of the land will increase,and the more family members in this stage,the more obvious this phenomenon will be.Second,when faced with serious liquidity constraints,if there are members in the payment stage in the family,the current pressure of farmers will rise,and this pressure will rise further with the increase of members in this stage,thus inhibiting the transfer of land;After receiving pension to ease the mobility constraints of farmers,the security role of land will decline,which will promote the transfer of land.Third,the increase of average payment amount of farmers will significantly reduce the area of land transferred by farmers,and the increase of average insured amount will significantly increase the area of land transferred by farmers.According to the results of this study,the following suggestions are put forward:First,we should improve the employment market of migrant workers and reduce the uncertainty risks faced by farmers in non-agricultural employment.Standardize the employment system of non-agricultural employment,improve the employment market,supplement relevant laws and regulations,protect the legitimate rights and interests of migrant workers,make them have a positive attitude towards future expectations,reduce their dependence on land,and promote land transfer.Second,increase financial input and subsidies.The existing new rural insurance policy provides a small amount of pension and a relatively low security intensity,which cannot completely replace the pension security role of land.We should increase the financial input and support of the state to the new rural insurance system,provide a higher level of old-age security for rural households,and thus promote land transfer.Third,pay attention to farmers who face serious liquidity constraints.Pay attention to these families with low income level,reduce the payment burden of these people by reducing the payment amount,increasing government subsidies,providing social assistance and other ways,so that they can enjoy the results of institutional old-age security.