| The implementation of the house purchase restriction policy is a series of restriction measures issued by various government departments for the real estate market in various cities,mainly from the purchase qualification,the number of houses to buy and the proportion of loans to house buyers and real estate enterprises to restrict.In order to crack down on and limit the "liquidity of hot money",a targeted "real estate firewall" was set up to minimize the impact of hot money on real estate,help the real estate market to achieve de-capitalization,and ensure the rigid housing demand of residents.From the perspective of policy,the house purchase restriction policy belongs to the regulation policy,which has the characteristics of stage and temporary,so its introduction follows the periodic change of purchase restriction-cancellation-restart.At present,the housing purchase restriction policy has carried out a new round of stricter purchase restriction policy under the cancellation of the first round of purchase restriction policy.The purchase limit index and the purchase limit range are strictly restricted.In the past,scholars mostly studied the impact of the first round of purchase restriction policy on the real estate market,and rarely analyzed the new purchase restriction policy.In terms of its impact,they also rarely extended it to other markets.Therefore,this paper conducted research and exploration from these two perspectives.Firstly,based on the research and analysis of previous scholars,this paper explores the impact mechanism of the implementation of purchase restriction policy on the real estate credit risk of city commercial banks.According to the mechanism analysis,the difference-in-differences model is used to study the selected 26 listed city commercial banks and their oriented purchase restriction policies.The results show that the implementation of purchase restriction policy can significantly increase the real estate credit risk of city commercial banks.And this effect will vary with the individuals impacted,the indicators of the purchase restriction policy,the geographical location of implementation and the development degree of the city.Secondly,the purchase restriction policy and real estate credit risk of city commercial banks are mainly transmitted to city commercial banks because of their impact on real estate factors,especially those related to supply and demand.Therefore,housing transaction volume and housing price are selected as real estate factors to explore the intermediary role of the purchase restriction policy in the real estate credit risk of city commercial banks.The results show that,the housing transaction volume plays an intermediary effect,while the housing price plays a masking effect.In a word,this paper provides references and strategies for the implementation of the purchase restriction policy and the real estate credit risk avoidance of city commercial banks,as well as theoretical and data support for the transmission of effects between the two,so as to better provide real estate enterprises and home buyers with the direction in development or house purchase planning,with good theoretical and practical significance. |
