| Since the reform of housing commercialization,the housing issue has become a comprehensive issue involving economic security,social stability,and political stability.Excessively high and rapid housing prices are not conducive to the steady development of the macro economy,nor are it conducive to the protection of the basic residence rights of national citizens,and will directly affect the people’s satisfaction with the country and the government.For this reason,my country has long placed the housing issue at an important position in government work.In order to regulate housing prices and solve the housing problem of the people,the Party Central Committee has issued policies and measures covering finance,taxation,land and other aspects.The housing purchase restriction policy is one of the administrative control measures,which can achieve the purpose of curbing the excessive rise of housing prices in the short term by suppressing demand.However,for local governments,the implementation of purchase restriction policies will bring negative impacts on local finances to varying degrees,and is often subject to flexible implementations by local governments,such as delaying the introduction and relaxing the formulation of policies.Past research has focused on discussing the restraining effect of the purchase restriction policy on the rise in housing prices from the perspective of policy performance evaluation,ignoring the important policy link of policy formulation.Facing the different strategies adopted by local governments in different cities on purchase restriction,it is necessary to study this heterogeneous government behavior,reveal the mechanism that drives local governments to formulate purchase restriction policies of different strengths,and help to fully understand policies with Chinese characteristics.Decision-making process to better regulate and control my country’s real estate market from a macro perspective.Based on the systematic review of the purchase restriction policy texts issued by each city since the start of the second round of purchase restriction,this paper constructs a systematic quantitative analysis framework for policy literature,formulates policy quantitative standards,and scientifically measures the differences in housing purchase restriction policies between cities.Based on the theory of political system,from the three perspectives of economy,society and politics,it analyzes the influencing factors that may cause the difference of local government’s housing purchase restriction policy,and establishes a theoretical model of urban housing purchase restriction policy formulation under the intergovernmental game.Furthermore,the appropriate indicators for each factor are selected,and the ordered probit model is used to perform regression analysis to identify the key driving factors that affect the differences in local government housing purchase restrictions and the driving mechanism behind them.The research results show that:(1)From the quantitative results of the second round of housing purchase restriction policies,there are obvious differences in intensity gradients between urban housing purchase restrictions.Changsha and Chengdu are the cities with the highest overall intensity of purchase restrictions in this round.Their policy intensity in each dimension of purchase restrictions,purchase restrictions,house purchase qualifications,policy evasion,and policy duration is higher than the national average.The second gradient cities include Xiamen,Nanjing,Nanchang,Zhengzhou,etc.,and the third gradient cities mainly include coastal cities such as Qingdao and Foshan,central provincial capitals such as Hefei and Wuhan,some cities around Beijing,and other third-and fourth-tier cities.The level of purchase restrictions in cities such as Dandong,Haikou,Kunming,and Pu’er has always been low.(2)Driving factors leading to differences in local government purchase restriction policies: Although the current status of urban economic and social development significantly affects the intensity of housing purchase restrictions,the inter-governmental relationship is a decisive factor affecting the intensity of housing purchase restrictions.The lower the proportion of real estate investment in the economy,the greater the probability of adopting a high-intensity purchase restriction strategy;both the land financial dependence and the housing price-to-income ratio will positively affect the purchase restriction intensity;The competition between cities for economic and social resources will make it difficult for local governments to actively strengthen purchase restrictions.Only when the regulatory pressure is large enough and the administrative cost of relaxing purchase restrictions is high enough,will local governments give up chasing economic benefits and strengthen purchase restrictions.Based on the above research results,this research believes that to further strengthen the macro-control of the real estate market in the future,to ensure the effective implementation of the real estate policy based on "housing and not speculating",it is necessary to strengthen policy support and mechanism establishment from the economic,social and political aspects.For example,at the economic level,we must strengthen efforts to support the development of the local real economy and get rid of the dependence on the real estate economy;at the social level,accelerate the construction of a housing security system with affordable rental housing and shared property housing as the main body,and promote the equalization of public service supply;in politics At the level,further improve the urban real estate market supervision system,while reforming the assessment and incentive mechanisms of local governments.As a result,a long-term real estate mechanism of "stabilizing housing prices,stabilizing land prices,and stabilizing expectations" has been established. |
