Study On The Impact Of Sino-US Tradebarriers On The Technological Complexity Of China’s Manufacturing Exports

After the reform and opening up,China has actively participated in the division of labor in the global value chain by relying on its comparative advantages in labor and policies,which has promoted the rapid development of China’s manufacturing industry and the continuous growth of trade scale.However,in the international division of labor system,China has been in the middle and low end of the global value chain for a long time,and the proportion of high-input,high-pollution and low value-added products in its exports is relatively high.It is urgent to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and realize the ascension of Chinese industry to the middle and high end of the global value chain.And this is closely related to the technical complexity of China’s manufacturing exports.In recent years,the trade friction between China and the United States and the impact of the new crown epidemic "double superposition",the U.S.trade protectionist policies have been increasing.Trade barriers,especially technical barriers to trade,have become the main means of trade protection in the international trade activities of developed countries.In this context,it is important to focus on the technical complexity of China-US trade barriers and China’s manufacturing exports,and to explore the relationship between trade barriers and the technical complexity of China’s manufacturing exports and the underlying mechanism,which can provide useful reference for accelerating the promotion of manufacturing quality upgrading,promoting the optimization of industrial layout and achieving highquality economic growth.This paper uses panel data of 30 provinces and 16 industries in China from 2002 to 2021 to dissect the mechanism of action between US-China trade barriers and export technological sophistication in terms of R&D promotion and OFDI pull.On this basis,the two core indicators of US-China trade barriers and export technological sophistication are measured at the provincial level and industry level,respectively,and the effects of US-China trade barriers on export technological sophistication are further examined at the national level,regional level,and industry level,respectively,in terms of regional heterogeneity and industry heterogeneity,and mechanism tests and robustness tests are conducted.The empirical analysis concludes that U.S.-China trade barriers promote the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing exports,both from the full sample data and from the three major regions and two major industries analyzed in the study.The regression results from the full sample data conclude that the level of economic development,urbanization,human capital and R&D investment are conducive to the technical complexity of China’s manufacturing exports,and the regression results from the regional level conclude that the US-China trade barriers promote the technical complexity of China’s exports best in the eastern region,followed by the central region and the western region.In addition,trade barriers have a moderating effect on the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing exports through foreign direct investment and R&D investment.For the two major industries,US-China trade barriers have a facilitating effect on both capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries in China’s manufacturing industry.By studying this impact,we can better understand the specific impact of Sino-US trade barriers on China’s economy.At the same time,by studying the impact of SinoUS trade barriers on the technological complexity of China’s manufacturing exports,the upgrading and transformation of China’s manufacturing industry can be promoted.Understanding the impact of Sino-US trade barriers on China’s manufacturing industry can help China’s manufacturing industry find new development directions and breakthroughs,and improve the technical content and added value of products.However,in the Sino-US trade war,how to optimize and upgrade products in Chinese provinces has become a problem to be solved.While drawing on the methods of predecessors,this paper discusses Sino-US trade barriers in depth and analyzes them from both regional and industry perspectives,and puts forward valuable suggestions for the improvement of the technical complexity of China’s manufacturing exports.