Research On Debt Default Risk Of Henan Municipal Government From The Spatial Perspective

The problems brought about by local government debt have always been the subject of governments around the world,and the same is true in China.In recent years,the reform of tax sharing system has mismatch the financial and financial rights of local governments,and the debt problem of local governments has become prominent.Since2015,the new budget law,standardized management for local government debt,strengthen the constraints of local government debt,increase the transparency of local government debt,to prevent the risk of local government debt gradually become a research focus,coupled with the influence of the international environment in recent years,the economic situation is increasingly serious.Since the 14 th Five-Year Plan,the government has clearly put forward the strategic goal of expanding domestic demand,so as to strengthen the construction and supply of public goods.While promoting economic development,it also leads to the gradual expansion of government debt scale,making the risk prevention of government debt gradually become a research center.Henan province has also actively responded to the call of the government and constantly strengthened the construction of infrastructure,so it is also necessary to pay attention to the risk prevention of government debt.Based on the spatial perspective,this paper explores the characteristics of the spatial correlation of the debt risk among different regions,and then provides targeted ideas and methods for the debt risk problems of local governments.First of all,this paper analyzes the past research on local government debt,analyzes the current research status of local government debt,and analyzes its shortcomings.Secondly,through the combing and combination of local debt and government finance,the formation and dissemination path of local government debt risk are explained from the theoretical direction.Taking the municipal government of Henan Province as the unit,the current debt status of the municipal government in Henan Province is analyzed by analyzing the multiple debt indicators such as the economic development level,social development level,urban development level and the local government debt ratio of the local government.Again,in the empirical part of this paper,to quantify the local government default probability as a risk evaluation index,through the empirical test of the local government debt default risk space correlation effect,through the spatial measurement model analysis: in the current government debt,the significant concentration of municipal government debt default risk,the local government economic development level,urbanization,balance index and social development level and debt ratio has obvious spatial spillover effect on the debt default risk.Finally,through the empirical results,effective suggestions are put forward for the debt risk prevention and early warning of Henan provincial municipal government.