Study On Cyclical Fluctuation Of Hog Price Based On Capacity Of Breeding Sows

Pork is an important component of our meat consumption,accounting for about 65%of our total meat consumption.Pig industry is one of the pillar industries of Chinese agriculture and occupies an important position in national economy.However,Chinese pig and pork prices present tremendous volatility,the phenomenon of "pig base hurt agriculture" and "meat expensive hurt market" alternately occur.The sharp fluctuation of the price not only increases the operational risk of the live pig industry chain,but also has a serious impact on residents’ consumption,restricting the development of society and macroeconomic.How to mitigate the frequency and amplitude of hog price fluctuations,formulate a reasonable hog price control plan based on China’s national conditions,and let the hog breeding industry chain to the road of high-quality development are of great significance to the basic livelihood guarantee and national economic development.Therefore,based on the current development status of Chinese pig breeding industry,this paper started with theoretical analysis and practical performance of the impact of breeding sows on pig prices,proposed three research hypotheses,collected provincial panel data of 17 provinces from 2008 to 2022,and constructed panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR)to analyze the impact of breeding sows’ production capacity on pig prices.On this basis,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to stabilize the pig production capacity,reduce the amplitude of periodic fluctuation and guide the steady development of the pig industry.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The imbalance between supply and demand of live pigs is the direct cause of the price fluctuation of live pigs;(2)The fluctuation of pig price lags behind the fluctuation of breeding sow stock for about one year;(3)The number of breeding sows had a significant negative correlation with hog prices;(4)Breeding sows have an impact on hog prices by influencing the number and price of piglets.The suggestions are as follows:(1)protect the basic production capacity of live pigs and establish a counter-cycle control mechanism of live pig production;(2)Improve information release channels and build provincial pig information service platform;(3)Promote the appropriate scale of the pig industry and speed up the construction of a modern breeding system;(4)To build a disease prevention and control system and strengthen biosafety prevention and control capacity;(5)Strengthen the construction of industrial chain and improve the development level of the live pig industry.