Analysis And Forecast Of Residential Real Estate Price Influencing Factors

Under the current economic situation,the continuous development of the real estate industry has a significant role in promoting my country’s economy.The price of real estate is a key factor affecting the decision-making behavior and survival and development of real estate enterprises,and it is also closely related to the lives of the majority of residents.In the past 20 years,the price of commercial housing in my country has increased significantly,and the growth rate has exceeded the level of residents’ income,which affects the normal life of residents to a certain extent.The central and local governments have frequently formulated various targeted control policies for this purpose.Under this opportunity,in order to help the government to better solve many contradictions in the real estate market,this paper chooses to start from the factors affecting the real estate price,in order to provide a decision-making basis for the regulation of the real estate market.Inspired by the theory of supply and demand in Western economics,this paper firstly divides the factors affecting housing prices into five categories from the perspective of real estate market participants,namely corporate factors,consumer factors,government factors,housing characteristic factors,and economic factors.Then a multiple linear regression model was constructed to analyze the correlation of each variable,and stepwise regression was used to eliminate redundant variables with multicollinearity problems.Secondly,this paper adopts two methods to deal with the possible endogeneity problems caused by the mutual causation of independent variables and dependent variables to eliminate the endogenous interference.Finally,in order to further analyze the internal laws of the real estate market in Ma’anshan,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity from the two aspects of price and transaction volume according to the housing transaction area.The analysis results of the regression model show that:(1)Four factors,including residential real estate investment,housing provident fund personal housing loan balance,land price and regional GDP,have a greater impact on housing prices,and residential real estate investment has a negative impact on housing prices.Three factors,such as housing provident fund personal housing loan balance,land price and regional GDP,have a significant positive effect on housing prices;(2)The four core influencing factors have a significantly greater impact on the price of improved housing than rigid demand.(3)When predicting real estate prices,this paper chooses the grey GM(1,1)forecasting model to forecast the residential real estate prices in Ma’anshan City from 2021 to 2025.The results show that the real estate prices in Ma’anshan City will increase by 7.8% in the next five years.The average annual growth rate continues to rise.According to the regression results of the multiple linear regression model and the prediction results of the grey GM(1,1)model,this paper puts forward the following four suggestions: firstly,real estate enterprises should maintain rational investment and moderate competition;secondly,the housing provident fund sector should further improve the housing provident fund The third is that the competent land department should formulate scientific land policies;the fourth is to promote the steady and orderly development of the regional economy under the leadership of the government.The research conclusions and results of this paper are conducive to stabilizing consumers’ psychological expectations,and can provide certain theoretical guidance for real estate enterprises’ investment and production and operation activities,and help local governments formulate scientific and reasonable macrocontrol policies.