Empirical Analysis Of The Factors Affecting China's Real Estate Price

The real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy,its development is related to the development of the national economy and the level of people's lives,since the new century,Our real estate industry is heating up rapidly,real estate prices climb,growth rate is much higher than National income level.Although a series of macroeconomic policies released,but the real estate prices are still high,in sharp contrast with the real estate inventory is huge.On the one hand,the real estate supply is far higher than the demand,housing prices are indeed high.On the other hand,the consumer demand for housing,but subject to high prices,can only lament.In order to solve this contradictory problem,we can keep the price in a reasonable acceptable range,but also effectively solve the real estate inventory problem,we need to study the real estate price factors.After the analysis of the impact of various factors on the price of real estate,targeted to control the price.After analyzing the possible influencing factors,this paper selects the average price of land transaction,real estate investment,sales area of commercial housing,the area of completion of commercial housing,M2,national consumption price index(actual deposit interest rate),bank loan interest rate,Gross domestic product(GDP)and other factors,the study of real estate prices and the relationship between the various factors of the problem.Based on the study of many predecessors,this paper analyzes the influence of various factors on the change of real estate price in the way of qualitative and quantitative analysis.In this paper,a total of 99 samples from 2008 to 2016 were used to analyze,by the multiple regression based on principal component analysis(PCA)and vector autoregressive methods.After two methods of analysis,the results show that:In comparison with the current variables,the change of real estate prices in China is mainly related to the factors such as M2,CPI,bank loan interest rate,real estate investment,GDP and so on.Price,real estate investment,money supply M2,CPI,GDP changes in the same direction;and bank lending rate was the opposite direction of change.When there is a lag,the real estate prices by their own prices,GDP,money supply M2,commercial housing completion area,bank loan interest rates and other factors are relatively large.Real estate prices and bank lending rates,money supply M2 there is a one-way relationship.Bank loan interest rates will greatly affect the real estate price changes,because the vast majority of buyers at this stage to buy a house are bank loans to pay the mortgage,when the bank's interest rate will increase to a certain extent,inhibition of house prices,money supply The amount will also affect the real estate prices to a certain extent.So policy makers can adjust their real estate prices to a reasonable level by tightening monetary policy and stringent credit policies.Finally,the analysis of three cities with higher housing prices in our country found that these city only controlled by macroeconomic policies,limited efforts.In such cities to be firm and continuous implementation of the purchase policy,but also to speed up the property tax pilot,through the tax to reduce the amount of residential real estate speculation to control the real estate prices.