Influencing Factors And Forecast Analysis Of Residential Real Estate Price In Heze City

Heze,as the core city of Western Shandong,plays an irreplaceable role in pro moting its economic development under the background of the rise of Western Shand ong.This paper makes a thorough analysis of the relevant literatures and the price cha racteristics of the real estate market both at home and abroad.On the basis of the g eneral situation of the real estate market in Heze and the time-series changes of the prices,the paper chooses the per capita GDP and the per capita disposable income of Heze city by combing the real estate prices in detail.Ten indicators were used as explanatory variables to intercept the relevant statistical data of Heze from 2007 to2017,and a logistic regression model was established to analyze the main influenci ng factors of the real estate prices in Heze city.The following conclusions were dra wn: from 2007 to 2017,the real estate market prices in Heze city showed an overa ll upward trend,in the middle.Fluctuate,in the past two years,the price of rea l estate has accelerated the trend of rising;in terms of the ratio of house price to in come,the price of real estate in Heze City is at a higher level,the growth rate o f house price is obviously faster than the growth rate of per capita disposable incom e,income growth is not enough to support the sustained and rapid rise of real estat e prices;per capita GDP,per capita.There is a positive correlation between dispos able income,resident population growth rate,construction area growth rate,land transfer price and the change of real estate price;the growth rate of completed housi ng area,real estate sales volume,real estate sales area growth rate,real estate d evelopment investment growth rate,average interest rate and real estate Price has a negative correlation.Land transfer price,average interest rate and the growth rate ofthe permanent population are the three most important factors affecting the real esta te price in Heze city.Finally,based on the results of the analysis,the following policy recommendat ions are put forward: improving the land supply and demand mechanism;strictly imp lementing the differential housing credit policy,reasonably guiding the demand for h ouse purchase;accelerating population agglomeration,promoting the urbanization pro cess;strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate market;maintaining st able economic growth;scientifically formulating regional development plans and impr oving the supporting system of public facilities.