Study On The Influence Of Risk Cognition On Land Trust Decisions Of Farmers Based On Planning Behavior Theory

Agriculture is the foundation of the world and of utmost importance.With the continuous advancement of urbanization,the rural population in northeast China has been declining in recent years.The loss of agricultural labor force and the aging of the population have led to young people’s unwillingness to farm.This has created the serious problem of "who will farm and how will they farm",which hinders the development of agriculture and the progress of rural revitalization.In response,China is accelerating the process of agricultural scaling,continuously exploring socialized agricultural services,and piloting new agricultural management models such as land trusts.However,China’s current land trust model is still in its exploratory stage and is far from achieving the level of socialized and modernized agricultural management found in developed countries.Farmers also have more unique risk considerations for new land management models.Therefore,analyzing farmers’ risk perceptions about participating in land trusteeship decisions is of great significance for promoting large-scale land management,the development of socialized agricultural services,and rural revitalization.This paper constructs a theoretical framework of risk perception affecting farmers’ land trusteeship decisions based on the theory of planned behavior,using 560 farmer survey data from Lanxi County,Heilongjiang Province,and applying a structural equation model to explore the impact of risk perception(natural risk perception,market risk perception,contract risk perception,and policy risk perception)on farmers’ land trusteeship willingness and behavior decisions.Multi-group analysis is used to analyze the differences in nonagricultural employment,family income,and family location in the process of risk perception affecting farmers’ land trusteeship decisions.The following conclusions are obtained:Market risk perception has a positive effect on farmers’ land trusteeship decisions,indicating that farmers pay more attention to agricultural market fluctuations and unstable agricultural income when considering participating in land trusteeship.Policy risk perception and contract risk perception have negative effects on land trusteeship decisions,indicating that factors such as low awareness of land trusteeship policies,insufficient contract constraints,and low trust in land trusteeship institutions inhibit farmers from participating in land trusteeship.Overall,risk perception has a negative effect on land trusteeship decisions.Although participating in land trusteeship can diversify natural and market risks,farmers’ unfamiliarity with land trusteeship and distrust of trusteeship institutions more strongly suppress their choices.Attitudes toward behavior and perceived behavioral control play a partial mediating role in farmers’ land trusteeship decisions.Among them,market risk perception affects land trusteeship decisions by influencing attitudes toward behavior,while natural and contract risk perceptions affect decisions by influencing perceived behavioral control.Policy risk perception does not produce a mediating effect.In addition,perceived behavioral control reflects farmers’ consideration of realistic factors and has a negative effect on land trusteeship behavior,that is,it enhances farmers’ willingness to participate in land trusteeship while reducing the occurrence of land trusteeship behavior.Moreover,subjective norms can enhance the inducing effect of natural risk perception and reduce the inhibitory effect of contract and policy risk perceptions.There are significant differences in non-agricultural employment between risk perception and farmers’ land trusteeship decisions.Farmers with non-agricultural employment in their households have a stronger positive effect of risk perception on their land trusteeship behavior and a smaller negative effect on their land trusteeship intentions compared to those without non-agricultural employment.This suggests that farmers with nonagricultural employment value the advantages of land trusteeship more and have a stronger intention and behavior to participate in land trusteeship than those without non-agricultural employment.There are significant differences in family income between risk perception and farmers’ land trusteeship decisions.Although risk perception has negative effects in both groups,the impact on land trusteeship decisions is smaller for lower-income farmers compared to higherincome farmers,and the difference in land trusteeship willingness and behavior is also smaller.This is mainly reflected in contract risk perception,indicating that lower-income farmers are less affected by overall risk perception and higher-income farmers are more inclined to consider the contract risk factors involved in land trusteeship models and are more affected by contract risk perception.There are relatively small differences in family location between risk perception and farmers’ land trusteeship decisions.Risk perception has negative effects in both groups,with farmers closer to central towns being less affected by the negative effects of risk perception than those farther from central towns.The difference is mainly reflected in market risk perception,where market risk has a stronger promoting effect on farmers closer to central towns and is more susceptible to the influence of market risk perception compared to farmers farther from central towns.Policy recommendations are as follows:(1)Improve farmers’ understanding of land trusteeship,simplify land trusteeship procedures,and strengthen land trusteeship promotion;(2)Strengthen farmers’ risk perception and increase their enthusiasm for participating in land trusteeship;(3)Encourage non-agricultural employment,strengthen the standardization of land trusteeship services in different regions,and formulate differentiated land trusteeship services for farmers.