Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Listed Real Estate Companies

The rapid development of China’s economy brings new opportunities for enterprises,but also makes enterprises face new challenges and threats brought by the market mechanism.If we can not take positive and effective measures to deal with these new challenges and threats in time,the company will face greater financial risks.In particular,real estate enterprises,as a pillar industry of the national economy,have a certain pilot,and there are more than a dozen related industries,which have a wide range.Therefore,it is necessary to combine the particularity of China’s real estate industry and the current realistic background to study the financial risk early warning of real estate enterprises.The research of financial risk early warning index system is the key to the construction of financial early warning model.Based on combing the relevant theories of financial risk early warning and qualitative analysis of financial and non-financial indicators,this paper constructs the financial risk early warning index system.Due to the variety of factors inducing financial risk,it is difficult to cover all the information only by using financial indicators or single non-financial indicators,which affects the prediction accuracy of financial early warning model.Therefore,this paper not only selects comprehensive financial indicators,but also includes non-financial indicators such as ownership structure indicators,separation of two rights,audit opinion types,etc.to improve the early warning effect of the model.This paper takes T-2 as the research period,that is,2017(T-2)data as the estimation sample,estimates the parameters of the model,and 2019(T)data as the test sample to verify the model.118 A-share real estate listed companies are divided into financial health group and financial risk group.The division of financial risk group is based on the listed companies that are * ST and st and the companies that are not specially treated but have negative net profit for the first time in the current year.The logistic early warning model based on the comprehensive index system of financial indicators and non-financial indicators is constructed.Through regression analysis,the overall early warning accuracy of the model reaches 94.9%,and the early warning effect is significant.On this basis,the paper analyzes the application effect of the model,and puts forward corresponding suggestions for the further optimization of the financial risk early warning model in the future.