Empirical Study On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Listed Real Estate Enterprises In China

In recent years,the urbanization rate increases year by year,and people's rigid demand for housing further increases.With the rise of economic level,more and more people invest in real estate,and the real estate "hot" has become a kind of market situation.Real estate company is hidden,however,certain financial risk problem,on the one hand,the government's high attention and introduced all kinds of macroeconomic regulation and control policy may lead to real estate investment growth rate falling,gradually reduce the land transfer income gradually rising,inventory and sales dropped significantly,these things will increase the risk of the financial aspects of real estate.On the other hand,compared with other countries,China's market environment is more complex,and enterprises do not pay enough attention to financial risks.In addition,the industry is capital-intensive,the cost of the production process is large,and the debt ratio of the industry is high,all of which will cause tricky financial risks.Therefore,it is necessary to combine the particularity of China's real estate industry and the current realistic background,the real estate enterprise financial risk and early warning research.Based on the above discussion,this paper in the qualitative research part: first,through the domestic and foreign financial risk related literature research,summarizes the existing scholars research results and existing problems and this paper may be based on this breakthrough point;Second,through the analysis and summary of relevant risk early warning theory,this paper establishes the research ideas and early warning methods.Thirdly,by defining the concepts related to financial risk and financial crisis,this paper reasonably divides which enterprises belong to the financial risk sample enterprises studied in this paper.Fourth,through the analysis of the factors affecting the financial risk of China's real estate enterprises,this paper establishes a suitable financial early warning index system.In the quantitative empirical research part: in this paper,83 real estate listed companies were selected as the two groups of samples in this study,namely those first "ST" enterprises in 2017,those with negative net profits as financial risk enterprises and those listed real estate companies with financial health.In terms of index selection,33 indexes were initially selected in this paper,which were tested by normal distribution test,T test and non-parametric test.Among the 33 indicators,20 have passed the test,and these 20 indicators need to be put into the model for empirical analysis as the final variables.The empirical approach is based on 2015 data samples enterprises as the estimated sample,to estimate the parameters of the model,with 2017 years of data as the test sample,to test to establish the early warning model of prediction accuracy,namely to phase(t-2)data as the estimated sample to estimate the parameters of the model,namely ST company losses for the first time that year,and then use data accuracy test of the model t stage.So for screening out 20 indexes of principal components were extracted with principal component analysis,modeling using 2015 data as sample data,based on the extracted principal component factor to establish an early warning model for the Logistic,according to the results of the model,the deep research in the influence factors of financial risk,and the fit of the model test and analysis of the forecast results,then,in 2017,the article assumes that the t stage of test data of the model prediction accuracy.The empirical results well verify the hypothesis of this paper.The results show that the company's profitability,debt paying ability,development ability,operating ability and cash flow ability are negatively correlated with the probability of financial risk.And in this paper,the introduction of innovative ownership structure factors and negatively related to the incidence of the financial risk,and in the influencing factors of financial risk,equity structure is the third most important,thirdly only to earnings factors and development risk factors,which introduce the necessity of through relevant index can explain the more concentrated the equity,the smaller the financial risk of the enterprise will be.And early warning model is established based on the data of 2015 to 2015 enterprise financial early warning of accuracy is 96.4%,with 2017 years of data to test the accuracy of the early warning model,the model accuracy has reached 96.3%,visible(t-2)as the research during the early warning model,either to the enterprise risk early warning accurately,the size of the calculated risk,and can forecast the financial risk of the future.Based on the analysis of the conclusions,the financial risk prevention and control measures based on the empirical research in this paper are proposed in the suggestion part,in the hope of improving the risk warning theory and contributing to the financial health of real estate companies.