Financial Crisis Early Warning Analysis Based On Cash Flow

In recent years,the real estate industry has gradually transformed into a pillar,basic and leading industry in the national economy.The financial situation of real estate companies has a wide impact and plays an important role in China's economy and society.Real estate is a typical capital-intensive industry,which requires huge funds.It has the characteristics of strong policy,poor liquidity,long cycle,obvious regionality and high risk.Since 2018,the policy regulation has been tightened gradually.The scale of commercial housing transactions has reached a new height,but the growth rate of sales has slowed down.The national real estate policy is gradually improving,and the government has promulgated and improved a series of relevant policies and regulations.With the increasingly stringent requirements of the state for the real estate industry,real estate enterprises are exposing more and more problems.First of all,the financial aspects of the problem,real estate enterprises want to better development,we must have a good financial situation.This paper mainly discusses how to establish a financial crisis early warning model based on cash flow indicators for Chinese real estate enterprises.The research idea of this paper,first of all,draws on the mature research theory of financial crisis model of previous scholars,this paper will take the research of financial crisis early warning of listed companies as the direction,and take cash flow financial indicators as the basis,based on the financial situation of real estate listed companies in 2013-2018,combined with the basic characteristics of real estate enterprises in China,to find out why the enterprises are in financial crisis.Based on the analysis of the reasons,a series of financial indicators are summed up.Starting from the analysis of these indicators,the research variables are selected.SPSS software is used to carry out statistical analysis of these financial indicators,and according to the analysis results,a financial analysis and early warning model suitable for real estate enterprises is established.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The main cash flow indicators affecting listed real estate companies are the quick ratio,the liquidity ratio,the cash ratio,the return on net assets,and the main business recovery ratio.(2)Factor analysis shows that M1 is mainly affected by Solvency Index and M2 is mainly affected by profitability index.(3)The forecasting effect of the forecasting model constructed in this paper is effective,and the accuracy rate is as high as 93%.