Research On The Income Insurance Premium Rate In Jilin Province

For a long time,corn has occupied an important position in the agricultural production of China.Corn is the country’s staple food and also an important energy feed.Corn production and acreage in China have been increasing since 2000 and reached a record high in 2015.With its unique geography and ancient agricultural culture,Jilin Province is not only one of the country’s most important corn production bases,but also plays a pivotal role in the production and processing of corn in the country.In 2016,the government officially abolished the "market-oriented" and "subsidized" model for temporary corn reserves in several northeastern regions,including Jilin Province,and proceeded to promote the marketization of corn.In the same year,the price of corn fell sharply as a result of the new policy,causing economic losses for farmers,who were then less enthusiastic about growing corn.This is a great sign that there are various types of unpredictable risks that could have a huge impact on agricultural production.Therefore,how to carefully deal with agricultural risks is a vital topic for us and it is alo a sure path towards the sustainable development of agricultural economy.The Central Government’s Document No.1,"Opinions of the State Council of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Promoting Rural Revitalization in 2022"(hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"),issued on February 22,2022,elaborates on the state’s policies to stabilize corn production and to provide subsidies to soybean and rice producers in2022.The "Opinions" not only emphasize the need to achieve full coverage of full cost insurance and planting income insurance for grain crops in the major grain-producing counties in the main producing provinces,but also propose to actively develop agricultural insurance and reinsurance,and explore the development of full cost insurance and planting income insurance.Based on the pricing theory of income insurance,this paper conducts an in-depth study of corn income insurance in each county of Jilin Province on the basis of the current pilot policy of income insurance,using statistical simulation and other means.The article first analyzes many unstable factors in corn production in Jilin Province,and then argues the necessity of developing agricultural income insurance in China.Second,some theoretical knowledge involved in the determination of corn rates in Jilin Province is discussed in detail,including the parametric method,price distribution,zonal risk clustering analysis and Copula function required for the algorithm.The data related to corn production in Jilin Province are also analyzed using the above theories and calculations.In addition,based on the differences in risk indices between cities and counties,the study used K-MEANS clustering to divide the risk between cities and counties at two levels.Finally,the study conducted a countertrend analysis of maize production and price in each county of Jilin Province and selected the best Copula function for calculation.By analyzing the comprehensive income insurance system in the pilot counties of Jilin Province and the "insurance + futures" program developed by insurance companies,the income insurance rates of each county in Jilin Province were measured according to the risk classification of different regions.The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation between the total production change of corn and the price change rate in Jilin Province during the implementation of the provisional storage policy.With the lifting of the provisional storage policy,the total production of corn in Jilin Province showed a significant negative correlation with the current price.The study indicates that the critical storage policy largely determines the relationship between maize production and price.On this basis,the study applied the K-MEANS method to further analyze the risk at the municipal and county levels: the coefficient of variation of maize production,the average yield reduction rate,and the average insurance payout rate at the municipal and county levels were selected.The study also analyzed the Baicheng and Yanbian regions as well,and the results were obtained.The results show that both Baicheng and Yanbian,where agricultural production is dominated by forestry and native products,do not have high maize yields.At the county level,the study focused on four indicators: coefficient of variation of maize yield,efficiency index,insurance compensation rate in the current income insurance pilot,and professional index.The results showed that even in the same municipality,each county has different risk attributes,for example: Lishu,and Yitong counties in Siping are low-risk areas,while Shuangliao County in the same municipality is a high-risk area.This paper also sets the Mu insurance amount for each county,based on the actual situation of corn income insurance implementation in the pilot counties,taking the average yield of the previous three years as the benchmark and taking the average price of the three years,or multiplying the two according to the trend,to arrive at the insurance amount of one Mu.The corn planting area of each county in Jilin Province is divided into a total of six levels of measurement,according to a certain percentage.In general,the premiums for acres in high-risk areas are generally higher.Although the premiums for acres in low-risk areas are lower,it has a higher rate.Comparing counties with the same acreage premium,it can be found that rates are generally higher in high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.