Study On Peanut Income Insurance Pricing In Henan Province Based On Risk Zoning

Peanut is one of the important oil crops in China,Henan Province is the main production area of peanuts in China,and peanuts are also one of the ten advantageous characteristic agriculture in Henan Province,providing guarantee for peanut production in Henan Province will not only help improve the situation of low self-sufficiency rate of edible oil and high dependence on foreign countries in China,but also help promote the economic and social development of Henan Province.Peanut production faces the dual threat of natural risk and market risk,but the current policy peanut planting insurance protection level in Henan Province is low and cannot meet the needs of farmers to pass on peanut price risk,and the unified 6% rate of this insurance type in the province is not reasonable.In 2021,the exceptionally heavy rainfall in Henan Province caused a serious reduction in peanut production,and the price of peanuts also decreased in the same year,and the low efficiency and weak guarantee of peanut planting greatly reduced farmers’ willingness and enthusiasm for peanut planting.Henan Province urgently needs to improve the protection level of peanut insurance products,stimulate farmers’ enthusiasm for planting,and ensure stable peanut production.Income insurance provides the possibility to meet this demand by protecting both production risk and price risk,and this type of insurance has continued to attract great attention from the central government in recent years.Based on the above situation,this paper conducts research on peanut income insurance in Henan Province,and conducts an empirical analysis on the determination of its net rate on the basis of risk zoning,so as to solve the unreasonable phenomenon of the previous rate implementation and further promote the development of agricultural income insurance.This paper first introduces the peanut planting situation in Henan Province,analyzes the peanut planting risk from the aspects of yield and price,and qualitatively analyzes the necessity and feasibility of peanut income insurance on this basis.Secondly,in order to avoid the occurrence of adverse selection and cross-subsidy,and the realization rate level and risk level correspond,the systematic clustering method was used to divide the 18 urban areas into 5 different levels of risk areas according to four types of indicators,including yield coefficient of variation,specialization index,efficiency index and disaster loss rate probability.Then,on the basis of risk zoning,the nonparametric kernel density estimation method was used to fit the edge distribution of peanut yield and price respectively,and then the optimal Copula function was selected to determine the joint distribution of the two,and then 10,000 income sample data were simulated according to Monte Carlo method,and the set protection level and simulated income sample data were brought into the rate determination formula to calculate the net peanut income insurance rate,and the empirical results showed that the net rate increased with the increase of risk level and increased with the increase of protection level.Among them,under the 100% guarantee level,the net rate from the low-risk area to the high-risk area is between 13.46%～17.84%.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the full text,suggestions are made for the future development of income insurance.