Research On The Influence Of Shadow Banking Scale On The Stability Of Commercial Banks

In recent years,driven by Internet finance,shadow banking in our country have become active and becoming an important part of the entire financial system.Unlike foreign shadow banking,Chinese shadow banking is mainly a non-traditional business dominated by commercial banks.As an important supplement to the traditional business of commercial banks,shadow banking can not only provide investors with a way to bypass interest rate control and activate idle funds,but also provide more financing channels for micro enterprises,playing a role in promoting economic growth.However,due to the lack of necessary supervision,the rapid expansion of shadow banking have greatly raised the level of macro leverage,distorted effective allocation of capital market,and easily affected the stability of banking system.Therefore,clarifying the impact of shadow banking scale on the stability of commercial banks can not only fill the theoretical framework of shadow banking system,enrich the research on shadow banking scale and commercial bank stability,but also deepen the understanding of regulators on shadow banking,prevent risks from being transferred from shadow banking to the traditional financial system,and find a balance between the expansion of shadow banking scale and the stability of commercial banks.On the basis of establishing the theoretical basis and combing the relevant literature,first of all,this paper establish a new explanation framework for the reasons for the development of shadow banking scale in China,analyze the development and supervision status of the main business scale of shadow banking,Then,based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between shadow banking and commercial banks stability,this paper put forward two research hypotheses.Then taking 38 commercial banks in China from 2009 to2021 as research samples,11 indicators are selected from the macro,market and bank operation to measure bank stability as explained variables,accounting items are selected from commercial banks asset side to measure shadow banking scale as explained variables,and the regulatory intensity calculated from PMG indicators are used as adjusting variables,this paper constructs a benchmark regression model to analyze the impact of shadow banking scale on the stability of commercial banks,and the regulatory effect of regulatory intensity on the relationship between them.The research results show that,first under the full sample,there is a threshold effect between the scale of shadow banking and the stability of commercial banks,that is,when the scale of shadow banking is less than the threshold,the expansion of shadow banking can improve the stability of commercial banks;when the scale of shadow banking is greater than the threshold,it can reduce the stability of commercial banks.This paper further classify the total scale of shadow banking into inter bank business and outsourcing investment business,we find that inter bank scale has a higher impact on commercial bank stability.Secondly,the heterogeneity analysis shows that there are differences in the impact degree under different bank nature,different scale and different governance efficiency.Specifically,for stock commercial banks,urban commercial banks,medium scale banks and banks with poor governance efficiency,the impact of shadow banking scale is more significant.Thirdly,regulatory policy play a positive role in regulating the impact of shadow banking scale on the stability of commercial banks,and the regulatory effect on the scale of outsourcing investment business is significantly stronger than inter bank business.According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward suggestions on macro supervision and self-discipline management of commercial banks,in order to guide the healthy development of shadow banking.