| Urban sprawl is a common phenomenon of urban development in China’s rapid urbanization process.Such urban expansion has raised the capital demand for urban infrastructure construction,and it is difficult to meet the needs of urban construction by relying solely on government finance and bank loans.In order to improve urban public service facilities and relieve government financial pressure,urban investment and financing platforms,with local governments as the implicit guarantee and actual repayment main body,compete to issue urban investment bonds to support urban construction.Therefore,urban sprawl has become an important reason for the growth of urban investment bonds.However,the regional development of Chinese cities varies greatly,and urban sprawl and urban investment bond issuance show significant regional differences,making the impact of urban sprawl on the growth of urban investment bond scale spatially heterogeneous.The increasing scale of urban investment debt issuance has increased the pressure on local governments to repay their debts,and the accumulated risks have become increasingly prominent in certain regions and cities.The spatial analysis of urban sprawl and the scale of urban investment debt issuance,as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of urban sprawl on the scale of urban investment debt issuance,can provide a reference for effectively preventing and resolving local government hidden debt risks and regional financial risks.Based on the urban investment debt data in Wind financial database,as well as the socio-economic data from the website of the Ministry of Housing and Construction,China Statistical Yearbook,Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction,and China Urban Statistical Yearbook,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban investment debt and urban sprawl in China from 2008 to 2020 are analyzed,taking administrative units above prefecture level as the unit of analysis;based on the existing research literature,theoretically analyzing the urban sprawl Based on the existing research literature,we theoretically analyze the mechanism of urban sprawl on the issuance scale of urban investment bonds,propose research hypotheses,establish an econometric regression model,and empirically analyze the regional heterogeneity of the impact of urban sprawl on the issuance scale of urban investment bonds.The study shows that:(1)The issuance scale of China’s urban investment debt continues to expand,and the number of issuance,issuance amount and debt ratio all show continuous growth,but the expansion of urban investment debt scale varies significantly among different regions and different types of cities.In terms of the number of issuance,it is mainly concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Chengdu-Chongqing region and some provincial capitals,more in the eastern region than in the central and western regions,and more in small cities than in large cities;in terms of the debt ratio,the debt ratio of cities east of the "Hu Huanyong line" is growing rapidly,and the debt ratio of eastern and western regions is higher than that of central region,and the debt ratio of large cities is higher than that of small cities.The debt rate of large cities is higher than that of small cities.(2)The overall trend of urban sprawl in China is slowly increasing,showing that the areas with higher sprawl are spreading from the eastern coastal regions to the central and western regions,and the urban sprawl of small cities is generally higher than that of large cities.(3)Overall,urban sprawl has a significant positive impact on the scale of urban investment bond issuance,but the impact of urban sprawl has significant variability in different regions and different types of cities.In the western region,the level of urban sprawl has a significant positive impact on the scale expansion of urban investment bond issuance,while the impact in the eastern and central regions is not significant;in small cities with small population size,urban sprawl has a significant positive relationship on the scale of urban investment bond issuance,while in large cities,the significant type of urban sprawl impact on urban investment bond issuance is poor.Based on the above study,suggestions for preventing the risk of implicit debt of local governments and improving the quality of urban development are proposed in terms of optimizing the spatial distribution of urban investment bonds and innovating the financing mode of urban governments. |
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