Spatial-temporal Change Analysis And Simulation Prediction Of Land Use In Henan Province

Land is the material basis for human survival and development,is the labor means of social production,is the basic means of agricultural production.In recent years,people’s irrational use of land resources has caused serious contradiction between man and land and ecological problems.In order to further explore the sustainable development mode of land use,this paper takes Henan Province as an example and uses the land use data of Henan Province from 1995 to 2020.The characteristics of land use change in Henan province were analyzed from four aspects of land use type distribution,spatio-temporal change,transformation characteristics and change intensity,and the change of landscape ecological pattern was quantitatively studied by using each landscape index.Ten driving factors affecting land use change were screened out and their correlation was verified.Finally,the geo SOs-FLUS model is used to simulate and predict the land use of four scenarios in Henan province in 2030.Based on the research results,suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable use of land resources in Henan Province.The main results are as follows:(1)From 1995 to 2020,construction land and cultivated land are the main land use types in Henan Province,and the variation range is large.The area of construction land has the greatest change,showing a trend of continuous increase,and the proportion of land use types in Henan province has increased by 3.37%.The area of cultivated land has been continuously decreasing,while the proportion of other land use types in the land area of Henan Province is relatively low,and the change range is small.(2)In Henan Province,landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity showed an increasing trend,landscape proximity and spatial connectivity gradually strengthened,landscape integration degree was high,and natural connectivity was good.Cultivated land belongs to the absolute dominant patch type in Henan Province,but it is disturbed by human activities.The significance of cultivated land as the dominant patch fluctuates greatly,and it is in a decreasing trend,with the proportion of the largest patch decreasing and the degree of fragmentation increasing.The degree of fragmentation at the edge of the connection between cultivated land and town is increasing,and the density of both boundary is increasing,and the landscape scale and dispersion degree of construction land are expanding.(3)Natural topography and population density are the main driving factors affecting land use change in Henan Province.Logistic regression model was used to explore and prove the driving forces of land use change in Henan Province and its correlation verification.The ROC curve fitting degree was used to test the experimental results of Logistic regression model,in which ROC values of all land use types were greater than 0.7.The results show that the selected driving factors are the main factors affecting the change of land use types in Henan Province.(4)GeoSOs-FLUS model can simulate and predict future land use scenarios in Henan Province,and the simulation effect of comprehensive development scenarios is better.The kappa coefficient obtained by comparing the predicted data in 2020 with the real data in the study area is 0.827469,which meets the accuracy requirements.Four scenarios of land use change in Henan Province in 2030 are simulated and predicted.By comparing the situation of land use change,found that a single scene simulation of land use change is not very good reflect the change of land use of henan province,can from the basic farmland,the comprehensive development situation of urbanization development and ecological protection,etc on the whole overall planning the change of land use type and the transfer of henan province.To get more conducive to promoting sustainable development of Henan province land use pattern,for the development of Henan province to provide decision-making support.