| Land use evolution is an important indicator of human activities and biological change,and has become a key element of global environmental change research.Through the process of land use evolution,it helps to explore and analyse the problems that arise in the process of land change,to systematically grasp the laws of land evolution,and to provide decision-making support for future sustainable land use policies.At present,research on the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in China is mainly focused on large scale areas such as economically developed or ecologically sensitive areas,and less research has been conducted on county-level cities where agriculture is the dominant industry.To this end,this study selects the typical plain grain-producing city of Jianli as the research area.Firstly,based on the land use data of seven periods from 1990 to 2020,the land use is divided into six first-class categories with reference to the land resource classification system of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.Secondly,based on the land use data of the past years,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and patterns of land use were analysed in four aspects,and 11 types of driving factors were selected from natural,socio-economic and traffic location aspects;finally,combined with the CLUE-S model,the land use data of 2020 were simulated,and after the accuracy of the model passed the kappa coefficient test,The Markov model was applied to obtain the land use demand under the four development scenarios of conventional development and the land use situation in 2030 was simulated.this study concludes that the integrated development scenario is more suitable for the future development of Jianli City and proposes strategies to optimise the layout of rural settlements under this scenario.(1)Changes in the quantity and rate of land use.From 1990 to 2020,the area of arable land showed a slight upward trend,forest land and grassland showed a downward trend,the area of water continued to decrease,and the area of construction land showed an increasing trend year by year;from 1990 to 2020,the degree of land use in Supervalu City was high and the intensity of change showed a fluctuating upward trend.During the period of 2000-2010,grassland and unused land changed at the fastest rate;during the period of 2010-2020,the rate of change of all types of land slowed down,but they were all higher than that of 1990-2000,(2)the intensity of change was relatively stable.Between 1990 and 2020,the largest changes were in the areas of arable land,water and construction land,with changes in arable land mainly coming from water and construction land,with changes concentrated in the central-eastern and southern regions,while in the central region arable land was reduced and scattered due to the expansion of urban areas;construction land was mainly transferred from arable land,with changes concentrated in the central city,Zhuhe town,Huangxiekou Town and Bailuo Town.Water areas were mainly transferred out to arable land,mainly from some of the pond sites to paddy fields as arable land,and the area reduction was sporadically distributed in various areas of the city.(3)Driving force analysis and land use simulation.Eleven factors were selected from natural,socio-economic and transportation location factors,and the relationship between these drivers and each land use change was quantitatively analysed using Logistic regression.The results showed that the ROC values of the six land use types were all above 0.80,indicating that the selected regression model had a good simulation effect,and the results indicated that during the period 1990-2020,land use change in Jianli City The overall trend is influenced by natural driving factors,followed by socio-economic factors and finally by transportation location factors.(4)According to the four scenarios set up to obtain different land use scenarios in 2030,the specific results are: under the conventional development scenario,the large-scale expansion of construction land,grassland,forest land and water areas are greatly reduced,and ecological security is weak;under the food security scenario,arable land is greatly increased,but construction land is difficult to develop,and economic development is limited;under the economic efficiency scenario,the construction area is greatly increased,and villages are more clustered Under the economic benefit scenario,the area of cultivated land and water area is greatly reduced,making it difficult to guarantee food and ecological security;under the comprehensive benefit scenario,both ecological and economic development can be taken into account to ensure food security to the greatest extent,and on this basis,through the suitability assessment of rural settlements,four types of settlement layout areas are delineated to provide some reference for the integrated development of urban and rural areas in Jianli. |
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