| The current international economic and trade environment is intricate and complex,and China’s manufacturing exports are facing the challenges of slowing world economic growth,rising trade protectionism and unilateralism,intensifying trade frictions,the return of high-end manufacturing industries,the diversion of low-end manufacturing industries,and the increase of various uncertainties and risk factors.In this context,as an important element of strong economic resilience,it becomes especially important for China to further enhance the resilience of manufacturing exports.Industrial diversification agglomeration as a key influencing factor of regional economy and export resilience has been studied in depth,and how to give full play to the agglomeration effect of industrial diversification agglomeration to enhance China’s manufacturing export resilience has become a strong support for manufacturing export trade to effectively prevent risks and achieve sustainable and high-quality development.Based on the relevant research at home and abroad,this paper takes the negative export shock caused by the global financial crisis in 2008 as the research background,and analyzes the inner mechanism of industrial diversification agglomeration affecting the export resilience of manufacturing industry by sorting out the theories of externality,crowding effect,industrial life cycle theory and other related theories.This paper measures the level of industrial diversification agglomeration,industry-related diversification agglomeration and industry-independent diversification agglomeration by using entropy index measure,and measures the level of manufacturing export toughness by using the product export data of foreign trade database of National Research Network.In the empirical stage,the non-linear effects of industrial diversification agglomeration on the export toughness of manufacturing industry and its mechanism of action are tested,and the differences of different industrial diversification agglomeration patterns on the export toughness of manufacturing industry are examined.It is found that:(1)There is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between industrial diversification agglomeration and manufacturing export toughness,different industrial diversification agglomeration patterns have heterogeneous effects on manufacturing export toughness,relevant diversification agglomeration exerts U-shaped effects on manufacturing export toughness,while irrelevant diversification agglomeration has an inverted U-shaped relationship with manufacturing export toughness.(2)The mechanism of action test found that industrial diversification agglomeration can affect manufacturing export toughness through cost effect,innovation effect and scale effect,and industrial diversification agglomeration has a positive effect on manufacturing export toughness mainly through innovation effect in the late stage,and a large number of industries clustered together will instead produce crowding effect,causing trade costs to rise,scale diseconomies and other problems,thus inhibiting manufacturing export toughness.(3)In terms of heterogeneity test,by industry,industrial diversification agglomeration has a significant effect on the export resilience of both labor and capital-intensive manufacturing industries,while the crowding effect of industrial diversification agglomeration appears first in labor-intensive manufacturing industries.By region,the impact of industrial diversification on manufacturing export resilience is significant in the eastern coastal region,but not in the central and western inland regions.Based on the above research,this paper suggests that the diversified industrial agglomeration should be scientifically and rationally laid out;the industrial structure layout should be optimized based on regional development attributes to promote industrial adjustment and transformation and upgrading;and the innovation-driven development strategy should be promoted to shift from "factor-driven" to "innovation-driven". |
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