The Deformation Prediction And Stability Evaluation Of Xiaodejiang Landslide In Nanning-Kunming Railway

Xiaodejiang landslide lies in Xiaodejiang Village of Luoping County in Yunnan province. Nanning-Kunming railway crosses the toe of it. It is an enormous accumulation horizon landslide in traction model. Based on detail field investigation, an experiment in laboratory, experiential judgment and theory analysis, the genesis of Xiaodejiang landslide is found out. The structure of Hamuge fault and Benkuai syncline, the slippery stratum of pelitic siltstone, mud stone and shale, the geo-hydrological condition and the human's influence lead to the formation of the landslide.At the same time, with the long time monitoring data, some models for deformation prediction of landslide are established such as the nonlinearity regression fitting model, the exponential smoothing model, the time series analysis model, the gray model and the BP neural network model. Based on the qualitative analysis of engineering and geology conditions, the deformation tendency of Xiaodejiang landslide is predicted quantitatively with the models to provide the evidence for the prevention and cure in future.Based on the Method of Swedish Slices, the sensibility of the factors affecting the stability of Xiaodejiang landslide is deducted and analyzed. The result shows that ground water and the angle of friction are very important to the calculation of stability of Xiaodejiang landslide. By Methods of Transfer Coefficient, Swedish Slices and Synthesis C and , the landslide stability before and after anti-slide pile constructed is evaluated.The study result shows that the Xiaodejiang landslide is unstable before anti-slide pile constructed and its deformation increases gradually. By contraries, Xiaodejiang landslide's stability increases obviously after anti-slide pile constructed. Moreover, its deformation iscontrolled effectively. It shows that anti-slide pile construction is effective and in time.