A Theoretical Study Of Nowscasting Technology Based On The Short Range Forecasting And Warning System Of Shenzhen City

Close to a forecast technique to mainly include strong convection to identifyto track and push the forecast technique of the forecast technique, number and take analyzing data as outside currently main of concept model forecast technique etc. Identify to track and push a forecast technique to mainly takeradar data as foundation outside among them, cross in this aspect related outside push and return to a characteristic to track to identify outside push is amore mature technique, have already used for a lot of close by forecast business svstem in, although this kind of accuracy that forecast isn't high, forecasts a technique or has certain result nearby to the improvement.Along with fine number forecast technique and the calculator technical development, make use of many Doppler weather radar data and othermedium thesmall dimensions prognosticate data to carry on number mode beginning start to turn, forecast strong convection occurrence, develop and perish have already become very hot to study, that techniquedevelops very quickly, but notvery mature.The forecast technique of the concept model mainly is pass comprehensive analysis the small dimensions in the variety prognosticate data, including radarand weather satellite data etc., building up strong convection occurrence anddeveloping and perishing on this foundation of concept model, especially the boundary layer match near concern etc. Between line and strong convection, again combine number mode analysis forecast with other outside push a technique result, then build up close by forecast expert system, it can obtain strong convection ambulation and develop an information not only, can alsoforecast their born with perish.The radar data has in mostly the weather bureau current short time nearby the forecast, the early-warning system count for much function. But in returning to the judging of direction of the moving of wave the top of the very great degree still depends on the subjective judgment which forecasts a member.This text mainly with weather radar the body sweep data for foundation, tryto adopt a kind of method to replace a forecast member to carry on objective judgment strong return to the ambulation direction of wave, with this reduce workload of forecasting the member combine increment short time forecast, the early-warning system forecast an accurate degree.