Analysis On The Situation Of Allocation And Requirement Forecast Of Human Resources In Maternity And Child Care Centers In Wuhan

Objective:Analysis of the total and the internal structure of human resource in maternal and child health care organization from 2000 to 2009 in Wuhan, to understand the human resource allocation situation in maternal and child health care organization, to clear the difference between the human resource allocation situation and the human resource allocation standard in maternal and child health care organization in Wuhan. According to the total personnel number of maternity and child care in Wuhan maternity and child care centers from 1995 to 2009, forecast the quantity of human resource in maternal and child health institutions in 2020 in Wuhan, explore effective measures to improve human resource allocation of maternal and child health institutions, provide scientific basis for related department in Wuhan to formulate development planning of maternal and child health human resource and optimize allocation of maternity and child hygiene human resource.Methods:1. Document study. Consult domestic and foreign literature about human resource allocation status of maternal and child health, influencing factors of demand forecasting for health human resource, requirement forecast methods of health human resources and urbanization of Wuhan.2. Statistics method. Establishment database input and check data by Excel, analysis data use SPSS13.0, descriptive statistics and qualitative description for dynamic changes of statistical analysis of maternal and child health manpower in Wuhan from 2000 to 2009.3. Model analysis. Combining with the SAS8.2 and SPSS13.0, using grey model GM (1, 1), the method of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), bivariate polynomial regression model and weighted average combination forecast model for the forecast of main maternal and child health manpower in Wuhan in 2020.Results:1. Though the health human resource in Wuhan maternal and child care organization shows ascendant trend, the total amount is still serious insufficiency. In 2000, the number of the worker in maternal and child care organization was 596, accounting for just 61.95% of total people which should be equipped to match the request, including 518 hygienic technicians, accounting for 86.91%, 78 amateur technicians which accounting for 13.09%; By 2009, there were 848 workers in Wuhan maternity and child care institution, accounting for 39.02% of which should be equipped to match the request, including 292 hygienic technical workers which accounting for 87.38% as well as 107 amateur technicians which accounting for 12.62%.2. Though the academic level enhanced all the time, the overall academic level is still low. In 2000, the proportion of workers with graduate study, undergraduate study, junior college study and secondary technical study and below account for 0.19%, 18.15%, 28.19%, 53.47% respectively, undergraduate study and above account for only 18.34%; In 2009, the proportion of workers with graduate study, undergraduate study, junior college study and secondary technical study and below account for 4.59%, 38.87%,35.90%, 20.64% respectively, undergraduate study and above account for 43.46%, less than the half of the total.3. The number of worker with senior professional position and middle professional position shows ascendant trend, the professional qualities of health technological personnel (HTP) is improved all the time, but the structure of the title is unreasonable. In 2000, the proportion of senior, middle and junior professional position is 1:6.6:9.5; In 2000, the proportion of senior, middle and junior professional position is 1:3.8:4.7. There is large difference between the real proportion and the proportion advocated by World Health Organization--the proportion of senior, middle and junior is 1:1.2:3.This shows the title structure of maternal and child health technological personnel is still unreasonable.4. The health human resource in maternal and child care organization is time series data, using four prediction model to predict the total of health human resource in maternal and child care organization in 2020, the result as follows: The numbers were expected by ARIMA, Grey model(1,1), bivariate polynomial regression model and weighted average combination forecast model 3702,5345,5250,4871 respectively.Conclusion:1. National maternity and child care centers staffing still press 1986 promulgated "maternity and child care at all levels to the agency and staffing standards" to implement, at a certain extent, it may not satisfy the current development and maternity and child care centers and residents for maternity and child hygiene service needs.2. The health human resource in maternal and child care organization in Wuhan is increasing, but can not meet for the residents' demand for the maternity and child hygiene service, the health human resource is obviously deficiencies.3. The overall quality of health human resource in maternal and child care organization in Wuhan is low, the academic level and title structure is unreasonable.4.About the choice of the prediction model, the paper adopt four methods to predict the number of health human resource in maternal and child care organization in Wuhan, bivariate polynomial regression model and weighted average combination model's prediction accuracy is higher.