Study On The Current Status And Development Trend Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Songyuan City

Ecosystem carrying capacity as a main basis to determine the regional sustainable development, and it is a very important indicator on the study of regional sustainable development. In order to protect the people’s living environment, while making the city a healthy, stable and sustainable development continues, urban ecosystem carrying capacity study has important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, the research object is Songyuan City. Through collected and counted the historical data, analysis of the status of the ecosystem. Then application of system dynamics software (Vensim-PLE) builds the casual loop diagram and flow diagram of the ecosystem carrying capacity in Songyuan city. On these bases, system dynamics model was established. The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) From2002to2010, GDP of Songyuan City continued to grow, the average annual growth rate of22.71%. The region’s total population is showing a trend of rising volatility, the average natural growth rate is5.65‰. Domestic sewage COD emissions rose slightly, while the production of sewage COD decrease in emissions. Domestic COD discharge of sewage is about10times the production of sewage COD emissions. Songyuan city total COD emissions mainly come from the domestic sewage. The comprehensive energy consumption from2008, show a downward trend, compared with2003decrease of35.8%.(2) From2002to2010, the water resources carrying capacity and population carrying capacity of Songyuan city are all in a bearing range, and still have more remaining carrying space. The SO2carrying capacity and COD carrying capacity in a bearing range, but the upward trend is more obviously. Energy carrying capacity after2007has been in the overload state. On the whole, the ecological carrying capacity of Songyuan City is good, but the most prominent problem is in the energy sub-modules, obviously, the economic development of Songyuan city is dependent on energy.(3) Simulated the ecosystem carrying capacity of Songyuan city development trend in the next decade. In accordance with the current pace of development, to2020, the ecological carrying capacity of Songyuan city will appear in the critical state. Through the model simulated the Ecological carrying capacity of Songyuan City in the next decade. Select COD bearing coefficient, SO2bearing coefficient, water resources bearing coefficient, arable land bearing coefficient, energy bearer coefficient, the total population, GDP, GDP per capita, urbanization level, secondary industry ratio and tertiary industry ratio as the main analysis indicators. If current trends continue to develop, in2020the COD bearing capacity, SO2bearing capacity and energy bearing capacity will all overloaded. While the benefits of the secondary industry developing, the environment and resource subsystem caused adverse effects. Therefore, it’s necessary to formulate a reasonable policy, in order to make the whole urban ecosystem healthy and stable development. (4)Based on the above researches, the suggestions of improving the ecological carrying capacity of Songyuan were put forward:controlling the growth of economic development, made it develop steadily. Take effective measures to deal with emissions of pollutants, and strict requirements of enterprises to use the environmental protection equipment. Treatment of pollutants before discharged, to reduce the emissions of pollutants. Then the problem of improving air and water quality were solved fundamentally. The level of energy consumption per unit GDP should be reduced. The second industry would be served as the important field of reducing energy consumption. We should increase the propaganda and management strength of saving energy and reducing consumption, make energy-saving incentive policies, accelerate the development of new energy technologies, to promote the reduction of energy consumption in pace. Besides, adjustment of rural and agricultural economic structure, then improve the level of urbanization, leading the rural population into center city. Increase strength of industrial structural adjustment, the percentage of the non oil industry and local industry should be improved. At the same time also should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, and then made the economy developments of Songyuan get rid of the dependence on resources gradually.