Research On Earthquake Disaster Loss Pre-assessment At The Border Area Of Shanxi,Hebei And Inner Mongolia

In this paper,the regional earthquake disaster loss pre assessment was given based on the current earthquake disaster assessment model at the border area of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia.Through the statistics of earthquake damage data and the investigation of housing structures,the vulnerability matrix of rural buildings was constructed and population estimation was finished in the study area.Thus,the theoretical evaluation results of the traditional model were revised.Firstly,this article summarizes the traditional prediction methods of earthquake losses and the corresponding characteristics,and discusses the importance of pre assessment of the earthquake disaster.Secondly,the vulnerabilities of different rural structures are classified and analyzed to acquire the damage matrixes of different structure categories for the low earthquake intensity areas based on the records of ‘China earthquake disaster loss evaluation assembly' and historical earthquakes from1989 to 2016 at the border area of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia.For the high intensity areas,the earthquake damage probability of each damage grade of structures are fitted by beta distribution function.Thus,the damage matrixes of rural structures are acquired.Compared with the national standard matrix,the earthquake damage is more serious for different intensities and structures in the study area.In addition,the damage ratio calculated based on beta distribution function is basically conforming to the real conditions after earthquakes.This damage matrix provides a reference for the earthquake damage prediction in this area.Then,according to the population statistics yearbooks,the regional resident population data during 2000-2015 are analyzed to predict future population from 2015 to 2020.The future population was forecasted using linear regression analysis,logistics analysis and BP neural network analysis.Finally,considering the vulnerability of buildings and population change,the pre assessment results of traditional method are modified.The results are verified by historical earthquake,and show that this new method is feasible for historical earthquake test.In summary,compared with the South North seismic zone and the overall construction of alltypes of housing damage situation in our country,the building structure damage would be more serious in the study area.The probability of the beta probability density distribution function is approximately consistent with the damage ratio distribution which could show the actual degree of the damage.As for population,the analysis shows that the population will continue to grow over the next five years.And the pre evaluation results show that in the same intensity areas of 6.5 M earthquake,the seismic capacity is still weak for most areas,and the earthquake risk is higher compared to the past.